Thursday - March 19, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 19 March 2026
⏱️ 9 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Brian Szytel recaps a volatile, mostly down trading day with a late rally that still ended negative, warning against trying to time markets off Middle East headlines as volatility persists absent de-escalation. He notes Brent spiked to 111 then closed near 107 and WTI around 95–96 amid strikes affecting global LNG and energy infrastructure, and argues oil over 100 can shave GDP over time; markets appear priced for tensions to abate, with repricing risk if the conflict drags on. Offsetting positives include $160B in Q1 tax refunds (up 14% YoY), a shift from QT to balance-sheet expansion, GSE mortgage purchases, and financial deregulation reducing bank reserve requirements. He explains Strait of Hormuz risk (20% of global supply) drives prices, with speculation playing a role; the U.S. still imports ~35% of consumption. Data: jobless claims 205 vs 215, Philly Fed beat, wholesale inventories -0.5%, new home sales 587 vs 719.
00:00 Market Volatility Recap
00:55 Oil Shock and GDP Drag
01:43 Tailwinds Stimulus
03:12 Timing the Crosscurrents
04:14 Hormuz and Price Mechanics
05:18 US Imports and Refinery Reality
05:53 Economic Data Scorecard
06:36 Close and Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio |
| 0:06.5 | and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.1 | Good evening. |
| 0:13.1 | Welcome back into Dividin Cafe. |
| 0:15.4 | Brian Saitel here as your host this evening on Thursday on a down day overall in markets and it was basically traded lower |
| 0:23.0 | the entire trading day although about an hour ago you frankly got a late day rally into positive |
| 0:28.5 | and then end up still closing down into the negative and my comment around that is just if |
| 0:33.0 | you're trying the time what's going on in markets based around what Netanyahu says in Israel about |
| 0:39.2 | the Strait of Hormas or this or that, you are bound to get your face ripped off. This market is |
| 0:44.2 | volatile and more or less directionless inside of the volatility, albeit the Dow is down about 7% |
| 0:52.2 | from the highs. So today was no different, and that's what we've |
| 0:56.1 | been talking about. Volatility is going to persist until you see more of an off-ramp or some |
| 1:01.6 | sort of de-escalation materialize, and that isn't what we're seeing as of yet here in the Middle East. |
| 1:07.9 | With that, you had Brent up to 111 midday. It actually ended up closing around |
| 1:13.4 | 107. But with Iran striking Qatar's Rosloffin gas fertility, which is like 17% of global liquid |
| 1:20.7 | natural gas. And then Israel striking South Pars, which is in Qatar. You just have Brent |
| 1:26.9 | trading at 107. You've got WTI in the 95, 96 area. |
| 1:33.0 | And all of every day that goes by when you have oil over 100, you're starting to really start to shave tenths of a percentage point off of GDP. |
| 1:41.7 | So that's what we're dealing with. That's the same story that we've been dealing |
| 1:45.4 | with here for the last 20 days or so in the Iran war. Inside of that, though, that's all the bad. |
| 1:52.6 | So I have served you the vegetables first. So now let's get into the dessert, I suppose. We've got |
| 1:57.7 | $160 billion of tax refunds hitting in the first quarter, call that right now. |
... |
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