Thursday - June 25, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 25 June 2026
⏱️ 9 minutes
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Summary
Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Thursday, June 25, describing a mixed but slightly positive market with a growth-to-value rotation as equal-weighted indexes outpaced cap-weighted, rates dipped, and oil rose slightly while Brent returned near pre US-Iran levels; despite one major AI semiconductor earnings beat lifting parts of the space, much of tech was down. He reviews heavy economic releases: May PCE inflation met expectations (0.4% headline, 0.3% core; core PCE 3.4% YoY), Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1%, jobless claims beat expectations, durable goods fell as expected, and personal income and consumer spending exceeded forecasts, with five of six items better than expected. He highlights dividend growth using a 2000 S&P 500 example where a 1.2% yield grew to about 5.5% cash-on-cash over 26 years, and discusses private credit redemption gates, diversification, and software-sector stress as a key risk versus a systemic collapse.
00:00 Market Snapshot
01:03 Economic Data Rundown
02:36 Value Rotation Drivers
02:45 Dividend Growth Power
04:36 Ask TPG Private Credit
05:11 Run on Bank Explained
06:49 Wrap Up and Weekend
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.0 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel with you here as your host this evening, which is Thursday, June 25th, on a bit of a mixed market, but skewed to the positive, |
| 0:23.1 | and there's a lot of reasons for it. We got a whole lot of economic data out today in the |
| 0:27.8 | calendar, and I'm going to go through that with you in detail. What we've seen this week in |
| 0:31.9 | volatility around technology, we actually had one of the largest AI semiconductor companies |
| 0:36.5 | report much better than expected earnings today, which drove the whole space a little higher, although not in unison. |
| 0:43.2 | It was a little mixed, and most of the technology complex actually was lower on the day. |
| 0:47.8 | So when you look at the equal weighted S&P, it was outpacing the cap weighted by over 100 basis points. |
| 0:53.9 | It's that traditional growth to value |
| 0:56.1 | rotation that we've talked about quite a bit. But that was what was going on underneath the market. |
| 1:01.3 | Interest rates came down a little bit. Oil ended up coming up just slightly, but it's still |
| 1:06.2 | close to that low $70 range. And Brent is actually back to or close to what it was before this |
| 1:13.8 | US-Iran ordeal took place. Those are broad strokes on markets, but let me pull it back a |
| 1:18.6 | little bit and just go through the economic side of it because, again, like I said, there |
| 1:22.3 | was a whole lot out there. So bear with me here just for a minute. The first item that we got really |
| 1:27.2 | was the PCE number, and this is an inflation read, personal consumption. The number was in line with expectations. We had a 0.4 for headline for the month of May, and then we had a 0.3 for core when you move out energy and food from it. So that puts core PCE now at 3.4% year over year, |
| 1:47.8 | arguably quite a bit above the Fed's 2% target on these metrics, but albeit somewhat moving back |
| 1:54.4 | in the right direction is the way I described that. We also had a final revision on Q1 GDP. This came |
| 2:00.4 | up substantially. This was 1.6 previously. |
| 2:03.9 | They moved it up to 2.1. That's a much better read on Q1 GDP, so that's good news. |
| 2:08.6 | PCEI would chalk up to good news as well. The third point was jobless claims. They were better than expected, 215 versus 223. |
| 2:16.3 | So now I'd call that three out of three so |
... |
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