Thursday - July 31, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 31 July 2025
⏱️ 8 minutes
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Summary
Market Recap and Economic Data Insights: July 31st Edition
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel recaps the market performance on July 31st, noting a modest downturn despite positive tech earnings. Key economic data discussed includes initial jobless claims, PCE inflation data, and a stronger-than-expected Chicago PMI number. The host also dives into how inflation and rate of return assumptions impact financial planning. The episode concludes with insights on the energy sector's reduced volatility and improved balance sheets, emphasizing the sector's potential for dividend growth.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:53 Economic Data Highlights
02:42 Inflation and Financial Planning Assumptions
04:22 Energy Sector Insights
06:13 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:11.4 | Welcome back to Dividend Cafe. This is Thursday, July the 31st, last day of July, as we kick off August here tomorrow and tonight actually start the NFL |
| 0:22.6 | preseason for any of the football fans out there. But in the meantime, we had a down market, |
| 0:27.8 | although modestly down, and not surrounding a whole lot of negative news per se, but you |
| 0:33.1 | had basically a strong roundup of big tech earnings, which in the morning had as positive, |
| 0:38.3 | certainly on the NASDAQ, we were up over a percent. We lost some steam about midway through the day and ended |
| 0:44.3 | closing down 330 points on the Dow. SMP was down 23 points, which is about a third of a percent. |
| 0:51.3 | NASDAQ ended up actually flat, even with some of those |
| 0:54.2 | big tech earnings. So a lot of the rest of it did sell off here. But IPOs have started to pick back up a little bit, too, in some of these tech names. And so you're seeing that move some of the markets as well. But all in all, there was a decent amount of economic data on the day. We had initial jobless claims that were right in line with projections. |
| 1:12.4 | We had 218,000 for the week. Remember, this had gravitated towards that 240, 250 level for several |
| 1:18.8 | months, and we're now moving back in the right direction, which is just around that 220 level, |
| 1:24.1 | which is where I would say porridge has sort of been just right for a very long time, call it almost a year. |
| 1:29.3 | You had inflation data out with PCE data that came out in line with consensus. |
| 1:35.3 | You had a.3 number for the month of June for both the headline number and stripping out food and energy for the core figure on the PCE numbers. And that puts |
| 1:45.9 | the year-over-year number at 2.6% on headline and 2.8% on core, which is right in line with |
| 1:53.6 | actually CPI as well. So you're seeing these sort of mid-to-high twos, even mid-to-high-toes, |
| 1:59.4 | on inflation, both on the producer side and the consumer side. |
| 2:03.5 | Stick around the same figures here. |
| 2:05.5 | You also had a PMI number out of Chicago in that region that was far ahead of projections. |
| 2:11.3 | We got a 47 number when we were expecting in the 41s. |
| 2:14.9 | So good news in manufacturing. |
| 2:16.7 | So like I said, across the board, more or less, |
... |
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