Thursday - July 2, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 2 July 2026
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Brian Szytel recaps an unusual pre–July 4th market session with the Dow up 594 points (+1.15%), the S&P 500 flat, and the Nasdaq down 0.8% amid a continued unwind in momentum stocks, especially semiconductors, while value and dividend sectors outperformed and the equal-weight S&P beat the cap-weighted index. The key driver was a softer June non-farm payrolls report (57,000 jobs vs. 110,000 expected) with prior-month revisions lower, alongside a slight dip in unemployment to 4.2% driven partly by a falling labor force participation rate (61.5%, lowest since 2021). Rate-hike expectations fell sharply, with Fed futures moving to a 50/50 chance and markets pricing the Fed on hold; Szytel notes a 25 bps move is less important than AI CapEx, margins, earnings, employment, and inflation. Other data included jobless claims at 215K, average hourly earnings at 0.3%, and factory orders down 1.3% in line.
00:00 Holiday Welcome
00:33 Odd Market Snapshot
00:55 Payrolls Surprise
01:57 Rates and Rotation
02:48 No Hike Question
04:02 Other Data Points
04:35 Wrap Up and Wishes
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.1 | Welcome back to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel, your host this evening here Thursday, July the 2nd here, as we head into our shortened week. The market is |
| 0:22.1 | closed tomorrow for the observance of the 4th of July Independence Day holiday, which will happen on |
| 0:27.0 | Saturday. And so I'm recording this here for you as we head into that weekend. And if I don't speak |
| 0:32.9 | to you, the first thing I want to get right off the bat is wishing you and yours just a lovely and |
| 0:37.4 | wonderful and safe and happy and fun Independence Day as our nation. first thing I want to get right off the bat is wishing you and yours just a lovely and wonderful |
| 0:37.8 | and safe and happy and fun independence day as our nation turns 250 years old. Okay, with that all, |
| 0:45.0 | let's see what went on today in the market. You actually had a pretty odd day, frankly, in markets. |
| 0:49.1 | The Dow ended up closing up, believe it or not, 594 points. That's a percent, over a percent, 1.15 percent on the day. |
| 0:57.0 | The S&P was completely flat, so registered a zero. And then the NASDAQ was down eight-tenths of a |
| 1:02.9 | percent. So I'll call that odd. Why was it odd? We had a couple things out in the economic |
| 1:07.9 | calendar today, but the main piece of news was the non-farm payroll report. |
| 1:12.0 | This was for the month of June and missed consensus. So we got 57,000 new jobs. We were expecting |
| 1:17.9 | 110,000. So almost half. Okay, so that's a worse than expected number. But we also got a |
| 1:25.4 | revision lower for the prior two months in top of that. |
| 1:28.6 | So employment a little bit softer than expected here in the report from non-form payroll. |
| 1:33.5 | That all said, we actually had the unemployment rate tick lower by a tenth. |
| 1:39.2 | So we're at 4.2% unemployment rate now. |
| 1:42.3 | And one of the reasons for that is the labor force |
| 1:45.2 | participation rate has continued to drop and has really plummeted now to just 61.5. That's the |
| 1:51.4 | lowest number since we had in 2021 coming out of the pandemic. So odd here going on in the labor market and it's reverberating here through |
| 2:03.2 | stocks and then also into the bond market here a little bit. You had yields across the curve get a |
... |
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