Thursday - January 9, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 9 January 2025
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Market Closure, Payroll Data & Investment Insights - January 9th Edition
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the market closure in observance of President Carter's funeral and offers condolences to those affected by California wildfires. Brian highlights the anticipation around non-farm payroll data, expected unemployment rates, and wage growth stats. He also introduces David's annual white paper summarizing the investment outlook and reflections on past predictions. Brian emphasizes the value of reading macro-related research but cautions against overly relying on it for portfolio strategies. The focus remains on bottom-up fundamentals for security selection and asset allocation. He concludes with a nod to the upcoming wildcard weekend in sports.
00:00 Introduction and Market Closure
00:51 Upcoming Economic Data
01:34 Dividend Cafe Annual White Paper
02:18 Macro Research Insights
03:02 Investment Strategy and Philosophy
04:29 Conclusion and Weekend Plans
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Thursday, January the 9th. |
| 0:16.0 | Brian Titel with you here today on a very quiet day in the markets because the markets were |
| 0:23.6 | actually closed in observance for President Carter's state-sponsored funeral service. And so the |
| 0:29.8 | bond market was actually open for a little more than half today, but closed early as well. Both |
| 0:35.8 | all the stock indices in the U.S. were closed. So not much to report |
| 0:41.4 | today. We want to, you know, recognize a great civil servant in President Carter, and we also |
| 0:47.7 | want to keep all those in California that are affected by these horrific wildfires. In our |
| 0:53.7 | thoughts and prayers, we've had some close |
| 0:56.0 | personal friends affected, and it's just a devastating natural disaster. So our hearts go out to |
| 1:02.9 | everyone there. That aside, in markets tomorrow we'll have non-farm payroll out. We're looking |
| 1:08.5 | for unemployment to essentially hover at the same area, which is 4.2%. |
| 1:12.5 | I think the market will be focused on the wage growth number, which is expected to come out around |
| 1:17.6 | 4%. That's perceived as an input into inflation. It's not a TBG house view, but nonetheless, |
| 1:24.7 | something markets might pay attention to. And then we're expecting somewhere near 150,000 jobs created for the month of December. |
| 1:31.7 | As there's some seasonal variability around some of this, so these numbers can shift. |
| 1:36.5 | So it'll be the largest market moving piece of economic data that we'll have on the week. |
| 1:42.1 | And so we'll be, and also markets will be open to adjust to it. So we'll watch that for tomorrow. The other thing I wanted to mention is for |
| 1:49.5 | a dividend cafe on Friday, we'll have David's annual year ahead, year behind white paper. This goes |
| 1:54.9 | over everything that we viewed going into 2024 as far as themes and theses that we thought were going to be relevant |
| 2:02.5 | and important in how they played out and whether we were spot on or somewhere in the middle |
| 2:07.4 | or way off. So he graced them A to F. I think it's relevant for people to read through because |
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