Thursday - January 16, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 16 January 2025
⏱️ 7 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Market Trends and Earnings Season Insights - January 16
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from the West Palm Beach office discusses recent market movements, noting a significant surge followed by a quieter day. Key factors influencing the market include a pullback in interest rates and weaker-than-expected inflation. Szytel delves into Q4 earnings season, highlighting strong performance in financials and industrials sectors, and the ongoing growth in technology earnings. He also mentions economic indicators like initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed Survey. The episode concludes with a preview of an upcoming longer form episode and well wishes for the holiday weekend.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
01:00 Earnings Season Insights
01:42 Sector Performance Highlights
03:39 Economic Indicators and Predictions
04:21 Conclusion and Upcoming Events
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.9 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Thursday, January the 16th, Brian Sightel with you here in our West Palm Beach, Florida office. |
| 0:22.8 | On a bit of a follow-through from yesterday in markets, but a much quieter day overall. |
| 0:28.9 | Yesterday we had the biggest move higher on the year, for 25 at least. |
| 0:33.3 | We had a good amount of breadth as well, meaning market strength internally. |
| 0:38.3 | Advancers, outpaced, decliner's 4 to 1. |
| 0:40.3 | I give that sort of a B plus type of grade, or solid B at least. |
| 0:44.3 | Sometimes in the 5 to 1 range is where you really see a meaningful move in the opposite direction after a correction. |
| 0:51.3 | This was only about a 5% correction from the peaks if this ends up being a |
| 0:56.1 | turnaround here. But regardless of that, what is moving markets is interest rates pulling back, |
| 1:00.9 | and that is because inflation was slightly weaker than expected as of yesterday. So big day yesterday, |
| 1:07.5 | very quiet day to day. 36% of the names did hit 20 day highs yesterday, |
| 1:13.0 | but I wanted to ship gears a little bit into actual fundamentals, which is earning season. |
| 1:18.5 | Q4 earning season is just getting underway, and as we hit stride here for it, there's some |
| 1:23.7 | notable takeaways. So from a sector perspective, financials, which had a huge move yesterday, by the way, |
| 1:29.5 | are now expected to reach about an 18% earnings growth for the year of 2024 after we get this Q4 result. |
| 1:36.5 | That's a big number. |
| 1:37.5 | And part of some of this is because of a steepening yield curve. |
| 1:41.6 | But a lot of that steepening yield curve wasn't necessarily priced |
| 1:45.1 | into some of the early quarter earnings in the first part of 24. So things have really picked |
| 1:50.3 | up steam on financials. Obviously, one of our larger exposures is the sector, and so we pay attention. |
| 1:55.0 | Same thing on industrials as far as positive outlook. They're going to hit kind of a triple play |
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