Thursday - February 26
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 26 February 2026
⏱️ 8 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Brian Szytel reviews a mixed Thursday market session with the Dow slightly up, the S&P 500 down about 0.5%, and the Nasdaq down about 1.2%, highlighting value’s outperformance versus tech. He discusses Nvidia’s heavily anticipated earnings beat (including guidance) but notes the stock still fell, arguing expectations were priced in and that AI-related capex at big tech is already starting and will inevitably continue to slow from a record pace that has pushed Mag Seven free cash flow slightly negative; as free cash flow rebounds, he expects more shareholder returns via buybacks, acquisitions, and potential dividend growth. He then explains the Depository Trust Company (DTC) system created in 1973 to simplify securities ownership and transfers, addresses concerns about government seizure as unlikely, and cites MF Global’s 2011 misuse of client assets as an example of illegal but possible misconduct.
00:00 Market Wrap and Style Shift
00:33 Nvidia Earnings and AI Valuation
01:10 Mag Seven CapEx and Shareholder Returns
02:45 What Is the DTC
03:59 Can Assets Be Seized
04:58 MF Global Cautionary Tale
05:51 Closing Thoughts
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.1 | Good evening and welcome back to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel with you here on a down day overall in markets here on your Thursday we actually had the Dow close up |
| 0:24.9 | 17 points so technically the Dow was just slightly positive and the equal weight S&P 500 by the way |
| 0:30.7 | outperform the cap weighted by over 100 basis points on the day so big outperformance of value |
| 0:36.6 | and those names and underperformance of tech companies, |
| 0:40.1 | S&P was down half of a percent. Nasdaq was down about 1.2%. So a bigger sell-off in tech. Part of the |
| 0:46.8 | reason of that was that you had big announcement and heavily anticipated earnings from Nvidia. |
| 0:51.8 | This is the largest chip makerage for artificial intelligence. |
| 0:54.8 | It's a four and a half trillion dollar market cap. It does move markets. It actually beat both |
| 1:00.0 | top and bottom in guidance. So handily beat earnings across the board by wide margin. The stock actually |
| 1:05.8 | was lower though on the day. I spoke about this on Schwabtby on Monday, so a couple of days ago as being |
| 1:12.4 | likely the case where you just get good reports, but underperformance of stocks with that particular |
| 1:18.7 | name just because it was already fairly priced in. It was trading at about 47 times earnings. |
| 1:23.2 | That's expensive. And we know that cap X inside of the big tech companies on AI is going to slow. |
| 1:31.3 | It's already starting to slow, but it's inevitable that it will keep slowing. It doesn't mean |
| 1:35.8 | hundreds of billions of dollars won't continue to be spent. It will. It's just that the record pace |
| 1:41.1 | that has literally caused free cash flow in those mag seven names to go slightly |
| 1:45.4 | negative here the past couple of years particularly the last 12 months to slow down and that was my |
| 1:51.7 | comment today it's stunning that you've got over a third at this point of all capital expenditures |
| 1:56.6 | and the entire 500 stock index being from just those seven large names. |
| 2:01.6 | But two things. |
| 2:02.4 | One, that represents their market caps. |
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