Thursday - December 18, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 570 Ratings
🗓️ 18 December 2025
⏱️ 7 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Market Recap: Thursday, December 18 - Modest Gains and Inflation Insights
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel provides an update on the market movements for Thursday, December 18. The DOW closed with a modest gain of 65 points (0.14%), S&P increased by 0.8%, and NASDAQ saw a tech-led rally with a 1.38% rise. Despite a rebound, the week is expected to end negatively for stocks overall. A key focus is the release of the latest CPI print, which showed a surprisingly low inflation rate of 2.7% versus the expected 3.1%, but the numbers are questionable due to a government shutdown affecting data collection. Initial jobless claims came in line with consensus at 224,000, while continuing claims were slightly below expectations. The Philly Fed Index reported a weaker-than-expected manufacturing number at -10 versus the expected +3. Brian also discusses the interplay between inflation rates and the role of the Fed, emphasizing that market forces and money supply are critical factors. He wraps up with light-hearted remarks about holiday shopping and extends holiday greetings to viewers.
00:00 Market Update: December 18th
00:10 Stock and Bond Performance
00:59 CPI Report Analysis
02:01 Economic Calendar Highlights
02:45 Inflation and The Fed's Role
04:24 Closing Remarks and Holiday Wishes
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Welcome in to Dividend Cafe this Thursday, December the 18th. Brian Saitel with you here. |
| 0:17.0 | On an update in markets, we had that sell offoff yesterday. So we got some follow-up today |
| 0:22.5 | with the rebound, although we closed far off of the highs for the day. The Dow ended up notching |
| 0:27.4 | 65-point gain, which is about 0.14% these days, so not a lot. S&P was up more, about 0.8%. And |
| 0:35.7 | NASDAQ, which is more tech-heavy, was up 1.38%. So this was more of a tech-led |
| 0:41.8 | rally. You had some earnings and some comments from some of the semiconductors and AI-related |
| 0:46.3 | components that were positive in the market. So you had a rebound in some of those names from |
| 0:50.4 | yesterday's large sell-off. That said, this week will still end up being a negative |
| 0:54.8 | week for stocks. Rates weren't all that changed on the day. You had the tenure down about three |
| 0:59.0 | basis points, and we closed at 412. News out on the day was, at least at the headline, very substantial, |
| 1:05.2 | because this was a CPI print. We got headline CPI that came in lower than expected. We got 2.7 versus 3.1, quite a bit lower. |
| 1:15.0 | Okay, if you strip out food and energy, the core number of CPI was actually 2.6, so even lower. |
| 1:20.8 | That was, of course, good news, right? But the only thing that is wrong with it is that the government was |
| 1:26.1 | shut down in all of October. And so the numbers |
| 1:28.1 | there were completely missing and then even November was partial. And so I'm happy to see the |
| 1:33.9 | inflation number coming down, but I just can't give this particular report a whole lot of credence, |
| 1:37.8 | frankly. And I don't think the market should either. And that's why you saw stocks rally in the |
| 1:41.8 | morning and then lose steam towards the end. Not much has really |
| 1:44.8 | changed here. We still don't have a very clear read and a clear update on inflation. If these |
| 1:50.1 | numbers were to hold, these numbers would be the lowest in about five years to put that in context. |
| 1:55.4 | But we really do need another report before markets can really bite into any of this and feel good |
... |
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