Thursday - December 11, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 570 Ratings
🗓️ 11 December 2025
⏱️ 8 minutes
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Summary
Market Overview and Insights on Private Credit – December 11, 2025
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides an update on the financial markets from the Newport Beach office of The Bahnsen Group. The DOW closed up by 646 points, while the S&P had modest gains and NASDAQ saw a slight decline. Szytel discusses the rotation from growth to value sectors, the recent actions of the Federal Reserve, and their impacts on the market. He also covers upcoming deregulatory changes and tax cuts, a weakening labor market, and concerns about overstated employment numbers. Additionally, he answers a listener question about payment-in-kind (PIK) in private credit, explaining the risks and how such loans are typically managed. He concludes by emphasizing the past three years' market performance and the potential for slower growth ahead.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:14 Stock Market Performance
01:13 Bond Market Insights
01:35 Federal Reserve Actions and Economic Impact
03:15 Corporate Profits and Economic Outlook
04:10 Private Credit and Payment in Kind (PIK)
06:18 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:11.9 | Welcome back to Dividend Cafe this Thursday, December the 11th, Brian Saitel back with you here in our Newport Beach office of the Bonson Group. |
| 0:20.1 | And on another sunny day, this is just beautiful weather out here in our Newport Beach office at the Bonson Group. On another sunny day, this is |
| 0:21.6 | just beautiful weather out here in California. And mostly positive day overall in markets, |
| 0:26.3 | the Dow actually closed up 646 points. So this is after a nice update yesterday also. So we got |
| 0:32.3 | some follow through today. And I'll talk about that. SMP was only up about two-tenths of a percent, and NASDAQ was |
| 0:39.2 | actually negative two-tenths of a percent. So it was one of those days where you had a big |
| 0:42.7 | rotation from the growth area, the technology-driven growth side of the SMP 500, NASDAQ, more |
| 0:48.8 | into the value side as a lot of this sector participation has just broadened out recently. |
| 0:55.0 | And actually you've seen the delta between something like the Dow, which again is a price weighted, more concentrated index of 30 names versus the S&P 500, which is cap weighted, and far more technology driven, call it 40% or close to it. |
| 1:09.0 | You've seen that delta between the two this year really start to |
| 1:11.9 | shrink the past month or so. We're now under 3%. So where we end the year, this is already middle |
| 1:18.3 | or so of December, I suspect that catching up continues, but time will tell. But there you have it |
| 1:24.4 | on the stock side of things. The bond side today was pretty flat. The 10-year |
| 1:29.0 | was up one basis point on the day. We closed it 4.16 on 10-year yields. And why has there been this |
| 1:36.2 | sort of move, I guess, higher on the long end of the curve and move lower on the short end, |
| 1:41.9 | along with some risk assets tending to perform well more on the value side. Why is that? Two things. One, the Fed cut |
| 1:49.1 | rates yesterday, we know that, but the more important part of that equation was that |
| 1:52.8 | they were adding to their balance sheet by $40 billion a month. When we looked at |
| 1:57.6 | what would probably grease the wheels of the credit markets, we thought |
| 2:01.1 | something around 20 billion would even do it. |
| 2:03.6 | And so they added more than what the market had expected. |
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