Thursday - August 7, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 7 August 2025
⏱️ 9 minutes
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Summary
Mixed Market Movements and Economic Indicators on August 7
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the mixed movements in the stock market on August 7, with the DOW down 224 points, S&P flat, and Nasdaq down slightly. The 10-year yield rose by two basis points to 4.24%. Brian reviews initial jobless claims, noting a higher than expected number and a rise in continuing claims, suggesting a softening labor market. Despite this, the likelihood of a recession remains low at less than 20%, down from 60% in April, partially due to a de-escalation of U.S.-China tariffs. Additionally, Brian discusses the historical context of market performance in September and October, advising against short-term market timing. He underscores the importance of focusing on long-term returns, dividend growth, and compounding benefits.
00:00 Market Overview: A Mixed Day
00:41 Economic Indicators: Jobless Claims and Productivity
01:53 Recession Odds and Tariffs Impact
05:09 Historical Market Trends: September and October
07:08 Final Thoughts and Upcoming Events
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.0 | Welcome back to Dividend Cafe. |
| 0:15.0 | This is Thursday, August the 7th. |
| 0:18.0 | Brian Saito with you here on a bit of a mixed day overall in markets. The Dow is off |
| 0:22.9 | 224 points, which these days means about a half a percent. S&P was essentially completely flat. It was down |
| 0:30.2 | five points and the NASDAQ was down about a third of a percent on the day. A lot of that |
| 0:36.1 | oscillating around different earnings that came out from |
| 0:38.6 | different sectors in the stock market today. But all in all, a benign sideways day. The 10-year |
| 0:44.0 | yield was up two basis points. We closed at 424. So we've been just hovering around these |
| 0:49.2 | 4-20s on the 10-year for a couple of weeks here. A couple of pieces of news in the economic calendar |
| 0:56.4 | day, nothing earth-shattering, but we did get another read into the initial jobless claims |
| 1:01.0 | numbers. We got a 226 figure. We were expecting 219, so that's a bit worse than expected, |
| 1:07.8 | but still in a normal range, I suppose. The part of it that I think we should |
| 1:11.5 | pay attention to is the continuing claims, which keep slowly but surely edging a little higher. |
| 1:16.7 | We're actually now at the highest continuing claim number since November of 2021. So these are |
| 1:21.8 | people staying on unemployment benefits for longer. You can call that having a difficult time finding |
| 1:26.4 | a new job or whatever you want to |
| 1:29.1 | attribute it to. But nonetheless, it's a slight sign of a weakening labor market on top of the |
| 1:34.8 | jobs report we got last week. In addition, we had a Q2 productivity report with a better than |
| 1:40.9 | expected increase on a quarter. We got 2.4%. We thought it was going to be |
| 1:45.2 | closer to 1.9. And that's certainly better than first quarter where it was a decline of negative |
| 1:49.8 | 1.5. This is important because it's right around the start of Liberation Day in Q2, if you remember, |
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