Thursday - April 9, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 9 April 2026
⏱️ 8 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
In this April 9 Dividend Cafe Weekly Market Commentary, Brian Szytel recaps markets following a strong prior-day rally with notable breadth (about 82% of NYSE names advancing), then discusses how Iran/Israel/Lebanon developments and ceasefire talks are contributing to a tenuous market backdrop despite continued gains across the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq. He reviews moves in yields and oil, including a sharp prior-day drop and a rebound, and explains the strategic and longer-term economic implications of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed. Seitel also answers a common question on the VIX as a measure of expected volatility and a potential contrarian indicator rather than a timing tool. He closes with key data points: February PCE inflation, jobless claims, weaker personal income, personal spending, and a lower final revision to Q4 GDP.
00:00 Welcome and Setup
00:21 Market Rally and Breadth
00:43 Geopolitics Driving Sentiment
01:46 Oil Shock and Ceasefire Talks
02:32 Strait Closure Stakes
03:11 Long Term Global Workarounds
04:12 What the VIX Means
05:08 Key Economic Data Rundown
06:10 Wrap Up and Disclosures
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:13.0 | I welcome you back to Dividend Cafe this Thursday, April the 9th. Brian Sightel is your host here today on another update actually in markets. |
| 0:22.5 | And following yesterday's big up move, we actually had really impressive breadth that wasn't the strongest read ever, but it was up there. |
| 0:30.6 | This was an 82% advance of names on the New York. |
| 0:33.8 | So pretty big move higher yesterday. |
| 0:35.6 | Obviously, a two and a half percent move is just going to be a |
| 0:38.3 | tough act to follow. And so you had markets open slightly lower, really for no particular reason. |
| 0:43.7 | There was continued conflict in Iran and also in Israel and Lebanon. And that led into it. So the |
| 0:49.5 | markets open slightly lower. But then as market trading went on, you had about midday news about how Israel was |
| 0:55.6 | in talks with Lebanon after all as part of this sort of simmering down of tensions in that region. |
| 1:02.0 | The advance bulls to bearers ratio right now is basically in parity. There is about 1.2 to 1 technically, |
| 1:08.7 | so a little bit more bullish than bearish, but that's pretty |
| 1:11.5 | equal. And so my point is there's a lot going on, obviously, in the geopolitical landscape, and market participants, which is what that is measuring, has about as many bulls as it does bears at this point. So just be prepared for a tenuous state in markets as things kind of work themselves out. But look, the market was up seven days in a |
| 1:28.3 | row now on the S&P. It was up another six tenths of a percent. The Dow ended up closing up on the day |
| 1:34.4 | 275 points and also about 0.6 percent. NASDAQ was up about 0.8. So pretty broad-based across the |
| 1:42.6 | board. And then he had yields pretty much stay the same throughout the day. |
| 1:46.0 | Oil was actually higher early on and ended up closing up around 4% or so. |
| 1:51.0 | It's actually after hours. |
| 1:52.0 | It's up about 5% right now. |
| 1:54.0 | That was after its, you know, 16% drop yesterday, which was the largest intraday drop in oil since April of 2020 during COVID. So there you have it. |
| 2:03.0 | That's what markets are kind of chewing through. And it all comes down to these negotiations. There's |
| 2:07.0 | this two-week sort of ceasefire that has been declared between the two countries. There's a meeting |
... |
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