Throw MORE? How the Buffalo Bills Will DISTRIBUTE Josh Allen's 2026 Pass Attempts

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4.8 • 1.4K Ratings

🗓️ 28 May 2026

⏱️ 28 minutes

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Summary

Buffalo Bills fans face a pivotal question: how will Josh Allen’s 2026 targets share a revamped passing attack? Joe Marino projects a return to a more aggressive aerial game, spotlighting D.J. Moore’s arrival as a game-changer in Brandon Beane’s evolving offense. Can Allen hit 544 passing attempts, and will the chemistry with Moore ignite the stat sheet? Target distribution sparks debate as Joe Marino sets expectations for Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, and James Cook. With just 12% of last year’s targets vacated, who emerges as the new go-to options? Key questions include Kincaid’s health, Cook’s elusive breakout as a receiving back, and the wild cards of Josh Palmer and Skyler Bell. This episode breaks down the biggest variables that could define the Buffalo Bills’ passing game—and their chances in a tough AFC East race.

Transcript

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0:00.0	how many times will Josh Allen throw the football in 2026 and how will those targets be distributed?
0:07.2	We're exploring that right now.
0:14.6	You are locked on bills, your daily Buffalo Bills podcast.
0:19.7	Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day.
0:26.2	What's up, Bill's Mafia?
0:28.2	It's Joe Marino on today's episode.
0:30.9	It's my annual Buffalo Bills Target Distribution Podcasts where I will go through and try to project how many times Josh Allen's
0:41.0	going to throw it and then how those targets will be distributed. So a couple of things here
0:46.7	to establish right at the beginning. This does assume full health for 17 games. There's no way I
0:52.3	could project which players are going to get hurt and how much time they're going to miss. So we do assume full health for 17 games. There's no way I could project which players are going to get hurt and how
0:55.3	much time they're going to miss. So we do assume full health for 17 games. Number two, this is a thought
1:00.2	exercise. I am not going to nail all of it, but I am going to show my work and my objective, more
1:07.2	than anything, is for my process to be defendable. That's what's the most important thing
1:12.7	for me in any analysis that I offer is that it's rooted in sound logic that is defendable.
1:18.6	And I would encourage you to do this for yourself. Try to estimate how many times Josh Allen's
1:25.0	going to throw the football and then take that number and distribute
1:29.2	it among the receivers, tight ends and running backs and see if it lands how you think it's going to
1:35.3	because it's one thing here to say, DJ Moore is going to get 140 targets and I got another
1:41.3	hundred going to Shakir and Kincaid's healthy. There's another 100 and they'll certainly try to get the ball to Coleman. That'll be 75 and I got another 100 going to Shakir and Kincaid's healthy, there's another
1:44.8	hundred and they'll certainly try to get the ball to Coleman. That'll be 75 and I'm thinking
1:48.8	James Cook's going to have a big role catching the football, 75 more targets there. It's got to add up.
1:53.3	So I'd encourage you to do that and see where it lands for you. And the last thing that I'll say
	...

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