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Odd Lots

Thomas Peterffy on Interactive Brokers' Plan to Professionalize Prediction Markets

Odd Lots

Bloomberg

Investing, Business News, News Commentary, News, Business

4.52K Ratings

🗓️ 9 April 2026

⏱️ 55 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Right now, when you think about prediction markets, you basically think about two main companies: Polymarket and Kalshi. And then when you think of what's being traded on those platforms, there's a whole range of stuff from elections to sports to real economic outcomes, to totally gonzo random stuff, like who will win the next season of Big Brother. So far, sports is where a lot of the money is. But at least in theory, prediction markets could be a popular instrument for professional, institutional traders. Thomas Peterffy is the founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers, one of the most successful and groundbreaking electronic brokerages for both institutions and serious retail traders. Now Interactive Brokers is getting into the predictions space. In this episode, we talk to Peterffy on why he believes prediction markets will be the next big thing in markets, why he thinks his firm could be a major player, and what it will take to transform the space from a large curiosity to something seriously used by institutions.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Thanks for listening to All Thoughts. Follow the show on Amazon Music for more future episodes or just ask Alexa play the podcast, All Thoughts on Amazon Music.

0:10.5

Today's show is brought to you by Vanguard. To all the financial advisors listening, let's talk bonds for a minute.

0:16.2

Capturing value and fixed income is not easy. Bond markets are massive, murky, and let's be real.

0:22.2

Lots of firms throw a couple flashy funds your way and call it a day. But not Vanguard. At Vanguard,

0:27.6

institutional quality isn't a tagline. It's a commitment to your clients. We're talking top-grade

0:33.1

products across the board of over 80 bond funds, actively managed by a 200-person global squad

0:38.7

of sector specialists, analysts, and traders. These folks live and breathe fixed income. So if you're

0:45.0

looking to give your clients consistent results year in and year out, go see the record for

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yourself at vanguard.com slash audio. That's vanguard.com slash audio.

0:55.0

All investing is subject to risk vanguard marketing corporation distributor.

0:58.4

Hey there, Oblots listeners.

0:59.9

Joe and I are very excited to announce that we will be hosting a live show in London on Thursday, May 7th.

1:08.6

Yep, that's right.

1:09.7

We've never been to London before. Well, we've been to London

1:12.1

before, but in other capacities, we've never done a public episode, a public show in London.

1:16.8

We've done them in other cities, New York City, D.C., Chicago, San Francisco, and so forth.

1:21.8

This will be our first London one, and I'm really excited about it.

1:24.8

Very exciting. So if you want to hear some fantastic conversations

1:28.6

being recorded live on stage, if you want to hang out with Joe and me, or if you want to hang out

1:34.3

with other all thoughts listeners, you should definitely save the date for your calendar. It's going to be

1:39.5

at Wilton's Music Hall in East London again on Thursday, May 7th, doors opening at 6 p.m.

1:46.3

And the key thing is, you know, every time we do a live show and they sell out, people complain

...

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