Hello, fellow rebel capitalists. Hope you are well. And guess what? Josh is with us today.

I finally was able to pull him away from Grindr, his favorite app. Now, we'll see how long

he can stay with us on the video before he gets back to swiping right on all of his grinder likes.

But we got him.

Isn't that incredible?

So let's dive right into the video.

We've got to talk about what's happening with the canary in the economic coal mine.

Now, what I'm referring to, if you guys haven't watched the news today, and we're going to talk about rates.

We're going to talk about all the kind of economic factors we always go over. But meta Facebook came out and announced even more

layoffs. Now you maybe say to yourself, okay, George, no big deal. This is just because of AI.

But you're not putting the pieces of the puzzle together. And that's why you tune into these

videos.

We've got to connect the dots. So our starting point needs to be the economy right now,

and this is a hypothesis, this is my base case. You guys can tell me what you think.

But my base case is the economy is totally, completely propped up by asset prices. So the only reason we don't have negative real GDP as an example. The only reason we don't have the unemployment rate going from,

well, it's not the only reason that. I would see there's a couple reasons there. But the main reason,

let's put it that way, that we don't see the unemployment rate going from four to five to six to seven

that we don't go into a deep deep deep recession is because we have asset prices at these elevated

level so i'm talking about housing but more so the s and p 500 that just keeps going higher and higher and higher and higher.

Now, there's a mechanical reason. I know most people that watch this channel, including often

me, myself and I, look at the S&P 500 and just disbelief. Like, what the hell is going? How?

How is this even possible that we could get to these PE ratios and no matter what happens

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