This is how the RECESSION starts in 2026 | Phil Neuhart
Full Signal
Phil Rosen
4.8 • 18 Ratings
🗓️ 2 April 2026
⏱️ 29 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Phil Neuhart is the Director of Market and Economic Research at First Citizens Wealth. He joins Phil Rosen on Full Signal to break down the tension between rising geopolitical uncertainty and a surprisingly resilient stock market, the real recession trigger to watch in the labor market, why mega caps may be less insulated than investors think, the Fed's impossible position, and what an AI unwind would actually look like.
This episode is sponsored by Public: https://public.com/openingbell
Subscribe to Opening Bell Daily: https://www.openingbelldailynews.com/subscribe
Follow Phil on X: https://x.com/philrosenn
Follow Phil on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/philrosen/
Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:20 - Uncertainty vs. resilience
1:30 - Tail risks investors are ignoring
2:50 - The bear case
3:25 - Labor market as a recession trigger
5:40 - Stocks insulated from oil?
6:30 - Earnings season and the multiple contraction
10:20 - Complex Fed outlook
12:55 - What would trigger the first rate cut?
13:50 - Kevin Warsh's problem
15:30 - AI trade rotation
18:10 - Bullish small caps
20:20 - AI as scapegoat for layoffs
24:50 - Recession odds
27:35 - Does history still apply to this market?
28:50 - Follow Phil Neuhart
Disclosure: Brokerage services provided by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA & SIPC. Investing involves risk. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool by Public Advisors. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. See disclosures at public.com/disclosures/ga. See terms of Match Program at https://public.com/disclosures/matchprogram Matched funds must remain in your account for at least 5 years. Match rate and other terms are subject to change at any time.
#podcast #investing #markets #macro #stocks #bitcoin #fed
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Phil, I'm so glad you're here today. I was reading one of your recent notes, and you were talking about how uncertainty is structurally higher right now. |
| 0:07.5 | But my sense is also that markets have been surprisingly resilient. Can you walk us through that tension on whether you think the signal is actually the uncertainty or maybe the resilience of the market? |
| 0:18.3 | Yeah. So to the point on uncertainty being higher, if you look at really any measure of uncertainty, |
| 0:23.1 | the 2020s have just been structurally higher than the 2010s, right? When you think about |
| 0:27.1 | the invasion of Ukraine, et cetera, we have just seen higher geopolitical uncertainty. But I agree |
| 0:32.8 | 100% with you. The market has been remarkably resilient. We were down 9% peak to trough. Think about just |
| 0:38.5 | last year with tariffs. That was a 19% drawdown. So this has been pretty modest. I do think that |
| 0:45.0 | investors have been a little bit conditioned to look through some geopolitical noise. If you look |
| 0:51.2 | historically, drawdowns around geopolitical noise may not be as dramatic |
| 0:55.2 | as one might think. And I think the market is probability weighting all these outcomes and might |
| 1:00.1 | be looking through some of the noise. That doesn't mean it can't get worse, by the way. But we have |
| 1:05.4 | been a bit trained to say, okay, there's a disruption now. What about fundamentals? |
| 1:10.5 | Yeah, I think that makes sense. In regards to the Iran conflict, if we have an average, on average, |
| 1:16.6 | draw down six, seven percent for geopolitical shock, I think the average kind of hides the outlier |
| 1:23.6 | events. And sometimes if you have a threat of nuclear war or some catastrophe, |
| 1:30.7 | that gets hidden in these smaller numbers. How are you thinking about maybe the tail risk here? |
| 1:35.5 | Yeah, look, there's always tail risks. History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. And |
| 1:40.3 | I think when you think about any market, whether that's crude, the equity market, other commodities, it's all probability weighted, right? |
| 1:49.4 | So there absolutely is tail risk. |
| 1:52.2 | But what markets are telling us so far is that the risk is 100% material, but it's not unhinged. |
| 1:59.1 | And that is certainly our base case. But you're right, |
| 2:02.7 | there is a tail risk. Let's say some of the near term, what might be progress does not happen. |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Phil Rosen, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of Phil Rosen and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.