This is how AI BREAKS the stock market! | Gina Martin Adams
Full Signal
Phil Rosen
4.8 • 18 Ratings
🗓️ 26 May 2026
⏱️ 35 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Gina Martin Adams is the chief market strategist for HB Wealth. She joins Phil Rosen on Full Signal to discuss the under-appreciated risks of the $1 trillion AI capex and infrastructure buildout, stocks and bonds de-coupling, the winning and losing sectors, hidden inflation headwinds, and more.
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Stock-Bond Correlation breaking
1:59 - Turning cautious on stocks
4:51 - Semiconductor bubble?
6:52 - Nvidia earnings
9:17 - Hyperscaler spending driving inflation
12:48 - AI productivity vs. inflation
15:29 - How the Fed solves inflation
17:12 - Mag 7 free cash flow falling
20:42 - Mag 7 breaking apart
22:56 - New market leadership
24:49 - IPOs risk entire bull market
28:32 - Investing vs. gambling
30:43 - Wrong calls and finding value
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Gina, I'm so glad we're here today. I want to get right into the shift in stock and bond correlation. |
| 0:06.2 | I'm a little confused what's happening because the last few times we've seen it, 2022, 2015, 2007, |
| 0:12.2 | each time led to sort of a regime change. What's going on here? |
| 0:15.7 | Yeah. So this is really interesting because when you look over the long-term time period, you find |
| 0:21.9 | that stock prices and bond yields tend to trade together in regimes. |
| 0:27.4 | And by regimes, I mean either they're moving together positively or they're persistently |
| 0:32.1 | moving in opposite directions. |
| 0:34.8 | And each time, and these regimes last 20 years on average, you sort of stay together, you're moving together. |
| 0:41.3 | It's a symbiotic relationship. |
| 0:43.3 | I think it's an impression of inflation or an interpretation of inflation risk that drives that relationship. |
| 0:50.3 | But at certain points in time, the correlation breaks down. |
| 1:05.2 | You named a couple of those other dates that the correlation is broken down, where stock prices and bond yields are no longer moving in the same direction, or from a negative correlation, they suddenly start moving in a same direction. |
| 1:13.2 | Those are historically very disruptive periods for equities. We actually entered a regime shift as of April of this year. Stocks and bonds were sort of bond yields rise, stock prices rise, everyone was happy moving together, |
| 1:19.4 | but as of April of this year, that correlation broke down. It is a potential suggestion that |
| 1:25.3 | we are entering a bit of a rockier period for stocks. Not coincidentally, |
| 1:31.0 | April's signal occurred toward the end of April. May has been a little bit rockier, |
| 1:36.0 | certainly still positive for equities, but a little bit rockier than April was, at least as a |
| 1:41.6 | month. Whether or not it continues will probably depend on a lot of other |
| 1:45.5 | factors. But nonetheless, that correlation signal does suggest pump the brakes a little bit. |
| 1:51.5 | We've had a really nice ride. We may be in for a slightly more volatile condition to emerge as |
| 1:57.5 | we enter the summer months. So from my understanding, you're more cautious on equities now. |
| 2:03.4 | Is it because of this decorrelating relationship here? |
... |
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