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Hidden Forces

Thematic Investing in an Age of Global Entropy | Marvin Barth

Hidden Forces

Demetri Kofinas

Government, Business

4.8 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 1 September 2025

⏱️ 51 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In Episode 437 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Marvin Barth, founder of Thematic Markets and former Chief Economist for International Affairs at the U.S. Treasury, who previously served at the Federal Reserve and the Bank for International Settlements and has led global macro and FX strategy on both the sell side and the buy side.

Marvin Barth and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation unpacking his concepts of “localization,” “being is believing,” and “global entropy,” and how these thematic frameworks can help us understand changes in growth, inflation expectations, interest rates, the underperformance of emerging markets, the limits of monetary policy, and the weakening of American soft and hard power.

The second hour begins with a conversation about the three pillars of Western primacy—mythology, economic dominance, and military superiority—and why Marvin believes that each of these has already peaked. They discuss how rivals to America’s Post-World War II Liberal Order have used asymmetric warfare to thwart the West’s dominance and are now in position to offer something radically different—a new sociopolitical and economic model that can rival Western capitalism and democracy.

The two also explore scenarios ranging from a rapid dissolution of the global system to the managed emergence of a new bipolar order with two sets of economic and political ideologies, supply networks, and technological standards. This includes a broad discussion about portfolio construction, the role of the dollar, and how the broad international adoption of stablecoins could prove to be one of the most consequential stories of the coming decades.

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Episode Recorded on 08/26/2025

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

What's up, everybody? My name is Demetri Kaffinus, and you're listening to Hidden Forces,

0:06.2

a podcast that inspires investors, entrepreneurs, and everyday citizens, to challenge consensus

0:12.9

narratives, and learn how to think critically about the systems of power shaping our world.

0:18.8

My guest in this episode is Marvin Barth, founder of thematic markets and

0:23.1

former chief economist for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury, who previously served

0:28.0

at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of International Settlements and has led global macro and

0:32.6

FX strategy on both the sell side and by side. Marvin and I spent the first hour of this conversation unpacking his thematic framework,

0:41.1

including his concepts of localization, being as believing, and global entropy,

0:46.1

and how these thematic frameworks can help us understand changes in growth,

0:50.2

inflation expectations, interest rates, the underperformance of emerging markets, the limits of

0:55.6

monetary policy, and the weakening of American soft and hard power. The second hour turns to

1:02.1

geopolitics as we explore Marvin's three pillars of Western primacy, mythology, economic dominance,

1:09.2

and military superiority, why he believes each of these have

1:12.5

already peaked, and how rivals to America's post-World War II liberal order have used

1:17.4

asymmetric methods of warfare to thwart the West's dominance and are now in a position to

1:22.7

offer something radically different, a new socio-political and economic model that can rival Western capitalism

1:29.4

and democracy. We also explore scenarios ranging from a rapid dissolution of the global system

1:35.5

to the managed emergence of a new bipolar order with two sets of economic and political

1:40.9

ideologies, supply networks and technological standards. This includes a broad

1:45.7

discussion about portfolio construction for this new regime, including the role of the dollar,

1:51.0

and how the broad international adoption of stablecoins could prove to be one of the most

1:54.6

consequential stories of the coming decade. If you want access to all of this conversation,

...

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