It's Monday, December 12th, 2020, and welcome back to Goodfellows, a Hoover Institution broadcast exploring social, economic, political, and geopolitical concerns. I'm Bill Whalen. I'm a Hoover Distinguished Policy Fellow. I'll be your moderator today.

Join as usual by our three wise men are Goodfell as we call them. That would include the historian Neil Ferguson, the economist John Cochran, the geo-strategist, Lieutenant General H about to go on a break here at Hoover, so our

viewer should know will be back at some point early in 2023. So let's spend the next hour or so

talking about what happened in 2022, but also cast an eye on 2023. Neil, I'd like to begin with

you. Is it so obvious that Ukraine and Russia is the story of the year? If not, then what is?

But rather than kind of discuss why it's the story of the year, if not, then what is? But rather than kind of

discuss why it's the story of the year, maybe we should talk more about what will happen

with that engagement in 2023. Well, I don't think it could be anything else, just as you couldn't

really put anyone else on the cover of Time magazine as person of the year than Volodymya Zelensky.

Funnily enough, had a conversation with someone quite senior in that institution,

trying as it seemed to find somebody else because it seemed too obvious.

And I said, you know, sometimes the obvious is right.

And the only alternative suggestion that I had was to put the Ukrainian people

rather than Zelensky on the front of time, because really the amazing thing that happened in

2022 was that Ukraine didn't fold. That Ukraine turned out to be much stronger than almost anybody

had realized and much more united.

And as my friend Slava Vakarchuk, the Ukrainian singer, said to me,

whoever had been president would have had to do that, would have had to channel that

that patriotism, that determination not to submit. So that's, I think, the big story.

When you look ahead to next year, though, I think you have to feel a certain unease about

where this could go and what we might be saying 12 months from now. Because although the battle

has clearly swung in Ukraine's favor this year,

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