The Winner’s Curse: Why Smart People Lose Their Way | Alex Imas – EP 716

Passion Struck with John R. Miles

John R. Miles

Mental Health, Alternative Health, Education, Self-improvement, Health & Fitness

4.7 • 779 Ratings

🗓️ 15 January 2026

⏱️ 55 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

What if “winning” isn’t proof of intelligence, but evidence that something went wrong?In this compelling episode of Passion Struck, behavioral economist Alex Imas joins John R. Miles to unpack The Winner’s Curse, a powerful concept from behavioral economics that explains why smart, capable people systematically overpay, overcommit, and double down on bad decisions.Drawing from his research and his forthcoming book co-authored with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler, Alex reveals how the Winner’s Curse shows up far beyond auctions and markets—shaping career choices, relationships, investments, leadership decisions, and even how we interact with AI-driven systems. When competition, uncertainty, and ego collide, the “winner” is often the person who misunderstood the situation the most.John and Alex explore why human decision-making breaks down under uncertainty, how mental representation distorts the choices we think we’re making, and why loss aversion and sunk costs keep us chasing outcomes that no longer serve us. They also examine how modern technology and algorithms don’t correct these flaws but often amplify them.At its core, this episode is about reclaiming agency in an irrational world: learning to recognize when confidence is misleading, when winning comes at too high a cost, and how better decisions begin not with smarter thinking, but with clearer framing. If you’ve ever wondered why success sometimes feels hollow, why “winning” creates regret, or why intelligent people repeat the same costly mistakes, this conversation will change how you see choice itself.Passion Struck was recently ranked #1 on FeedSpot’s list of the Top Passion Podcasts on the Web, recognizing the show’s ongoing commitment to thoughtful, human-centered conversations like this one.Check the full show notes here: https://passionstruck.com/the-winners-curse-alex-imas/Download a Free Companion Workbook with reflection prompts tied to this episode.All links gathered here, including books, Substack, YouTube, and Start Mattering apparel:https://linktr.ee/John_R_MilesPre-order You Matter, Luma:https://youmatterluma.com/For more about Alex Imas:https://www.chicagobooth.edu/faculty/directory/i/alex-imasIn this episode, you will learn

Why the Winner’s Curse means the “winner” often made the biggest mistake
How behavioral economics challenges the myth of rational decision making
What mental representation is and how it distorts the choices we believe we’re making
Why loss aversion and sunk costs keep us chasing bad outcomes
How uncertainty, competition, and ego interact to produce overconfidence
Why AI and algorithms often magnify human bias instead of correcting it
Practical ways to slow down decisions and avoid costly “wins.”

Support the MovementEvery human deserves to feel seen, valued, and like they matter.Wear it. Live it. Show it.https://StartMattering.comDisclaimerThe Passion Struck podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only. The views and opinions expressed by guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of Passion Struck or its affiliates. This podcast is not a substitute for professional advice, diagnosis, or treatment from a licensed physician, therapist, or other qualified professional.

Connect with John

Pre-Order The Mattering Effect: https://matteringeffect.com/
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Keynotes, books, podcast, and resources: https://linktr.ee/John_R_Miles
Children’s Book — You Matter, Luma: https://youmatterluma.com/
Substack: https://www.theignitedlife.net/

Support the Movement: https://startmattering.com/. Every human deserves to feel seen, valued, and like they matter. Wear it. Live it. Show it.

Disclaimer

The Passion Struck podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only. The views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Passion Struck or its affiliates. This podcast is not a substitute for professional medical or psychological advice.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Coming up next on Passion Struck. Don't succumb to the sunk cost fallacy. So the sunk cost fallacy is this idea that I've already done something, I've already gone down this path. I might as well keep going, even though it's looking like a bad decision. Don't succumb to that sunk cost fallacy. Always take a moment, think, is the next step. If I hadn't gone into this decision to begin with,
0:21.5	if I hadn't paid money to invest in the stock,
0:24.4	if I hadn't taken that one class in that topic,
0:27.8	would I still do that next thing?
0:30.4	If the answer is no, stop, do something else.
0:33.2	Just this is one of the most important things
0:35.6	that behavioral science has taught us.
0:38.4	Welcome to Passionstruck. I'm your host, John Miles. This is the show where we explore the art of human flourishing and what it truly means to live like it matters.
0:48.5	Each week, I sit down with change makers, creators, scientists, and everyday heroes to decode the human experience and uncover
0:56.0	the tools that help us lead with meaning, heal what hurts, and pursue the fullest expression
1:01.1	of who we're capable of becoming. Whether you're designing your future, developing as a leader,
1:06.3	or seeking deeper alignment in your life, this show is your invitation to grow with purpose and
1:11.7	act with intention. Because the secret to a life of deep purpose, connection, and impact
1:16.9	is choosing to live like you matter.
1:26.0	Hey friends, and welcome back to episode 716 of Passionstruck.
1:31.0	We're continuing our series, The Meaning Makers, where we're examining how meaning is formed,
1:36.1	protected, and sometimes distorted in modern life.
1:39.8	In our last episode on Tuesday with Dr. Steven Sloeman, we explored how beliefs form and
1:45.5	how certainty, when left unexamined, can quietly narrow our thinking and distort our sense
1:52.2	of meaning.
1:53.2	Today we take the next step, because even when our beliefs feel solid, the real test of meaning
1:59.0	shows up in the choices we make under pressure.
	...

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