The White-Collar Recession Means More for Real Estate Than You Think

On The Market

BiggerPockets

Investing, Education, Business, News

4.8 • 859 Ratings

🗓️ 12 March 2026

⏱️ 43 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The next recession is already here. You may not see it, but you definitely feel it. Companies are quietly letting go of dozens or hundreds of workers at a time, interviews are getting harder to land, and those around you who made the most money are suddenly just trying to get by. This is the “white collar recession”—and a new report could prove that it’s about to get much more severe. And what happens when the highest earners, those who buy homes and can get approved for mortgages, suddenly vanish from the housing market? The impacts could be widespread, and a permanent shift in real estate could be on the horizon. Today, we’re unpacking it all—which jobs are most (and least) at risk, what will happen to the housing market as high-income earners lose their salaries (and ability to buy homes), and the markets most reliant on these types of white-collar jobs. But it’s not all bad news. New opportunities could be emerging in select markets as a few major industries see stability, and one type of investment property becomes the most sought-after of all. In This Episode We Cover The “white collar recession” and the jobs most at risk due to AI Why this time it’s different, and a recession may be inevitable How the housing market will permanently shift as homebuyers lose their income The most stable housing markets with the best employment potential One type of investment property every investor needs to keep an eye on (demand could rise) And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter Find Investor-Friendly Lenders On The Market 401 - Off by Nearly 1 MILLION Jobs? Why New Jobs Report Will Impact Real Estate Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Anthropic Report Grab the Book, "Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing" Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-407. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	AI is coming for the labor market, or so every expert seems to be saying.
0:05.7	From Elon Musk to Jack Dorsey to Sam Altman, a major disruption in the labor market,
0:12.4	one that disproportionately impacts white-collar workers, could be heading our way.
0:17.4	And if it does, it will ripple through the entire real estate market, impacting everything
0:22.1	from regional housing demand to rent prices, and yes, even to mortgage rates. So today and on the
0:28.6	market, we're diving into a recent report detailing which jobs are the most likely to be impacted,
0:34.9	how this could play out in housing, and what real estate investors should do
0:38.9	about it.
0:44.4	Hey, everyone, it's Dave Meyer, chief investment officer at Bigger Pockets.
0:48.6	Welcome to On the Market.
0:50.3	Today on the show, we're going to dig into what is being labeled the white-collar recession.
0:55.8	Basically, most of the studies and information that we have are showing that AI is coming for our jobs.
1:02.4	Well, not actually all of our jobs, at least not yet, but some industries do seem particularly
1:08.2	vulnerable, and that really matters for real estate investors and for the
1:13.3	broader economy. What recent evidence shows is that we may be at a sort of turning point for
1:19.5	the jobs market. And this may not be the type of normal labor cycle that we've seen in the
1:26.1	past, where layoffs are sort of temporary and then
1:29.0	they recover when the economic cycle shifts. Instead, we might actually be looking at sort of a
1:34.8	generational shift in what industries are hiring, which industries are shrinking payrolls and which
1:41.6	are going to pay the most in the future. And if all of this does
1:45.5	indeed happen, the implications are far-reaching for the economy and the housing market. So in this
1:52.1	episode, what we're going to do is we're going to cover first a new report from Anthropic,
	...

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