The Unanchored Central Banker: Manoj Pradhan on Inflation, Demographics, and Why AI Won't Save Us
Patrick Boyle On Finance
Patrick Boyle
4.9 • 308 Ratings
🗓️ 6 May 2026
⏱️ 51 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today, Manoj Pradhan of Talking Heads macro and Fundamenta capital returns to the show to discuss his new book, co-authored with Charles Goodhart, which serves as a highly anticipated sequel to their prescient work, The Great Demographic Reversal. If you thought the recent era of high interest rates and sticky inflation was just a temporary post-pandemic blip, Manoj is here to explain why the future will be nothing like the past. In this episode, we take a hard look at where mainstream economists are getting it wrong. Manoj argues that conventional macroeconomic models suffer from massive "blind spots" because they largely ignore the ever-growing impact of government debt and housing on real interest rates. We also discuss his fascinating premise that the Phillips curve isn’t dead—China had just put it in a coma. As China's own demographic challenges mount and household savings eventually fall, Manoj argues that the consensus belief that China will continue to export deflation to the rest of the world is fundamentally flawed.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Patrick Boyle interviews. If you've just come over from the main channel after watching my video on inflation, you're in exactly the right place. |
| 0:09.1 | Today I'm welcoming back Minoge Prada. And I first interviewed Monash back in 2020 when he and former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Charles Goodhart published The Great Demographic |
| 0:22.2 | Reversal, a book that went on to be an Amazon bestseller and was listed as the best |
| 0:27.7 | economics book of the year by the Financial Times. For those who missed my first interview, |
| 0:33.5 | Minot showed with me at London Business School was a university professor and went on to become the global head of emerging market economics at Morgan Stanley before founding his own macroeconomic advisory firm, Talking Heads Macro. |
| 0:48.3 | He's still a regular on CNBC, Bloomberg and all of the financial networks you watch, and he advises a list of top-tier |
| 0:56.6 | macro hedge funds. Back in 2020, Minos and Charles were amongst the very first to challenge |
| 1:03.3 | the mainstream consensus, with their argument that the demographic changes meant that inflation |
| 1:09.6 | would be much higher in the coming years. |
| 1:12.7 | Given the events of the last few years, his track record and economic predictions has proven |
| 1:18.1 | to be remarkably accurate. Today we're discussing their latest book, The Unanchored Central |
| 1:24.4 | Banker, which addresses the dramatic changes in the economic landscape |
| 1:29.3 | we've seen since that first book was published. The core premise of their new work is that |
| 1:35.8 | when it comes to the economy, the future will be nothing like the past. In this interview, |
| 1:41.9 | I asked Minoge all the difficult questions. We get into why mainstream |
| 1:46.4 | macroeconomic models have massive blind spots when it comes to government debt and housing, |
| 1:52.0 | and why the much-discussed Phillips curve isn't actually dead. We look at the tech sector's |
| 1:58.8 | favorite narrative and discuss why AI might not magically solve our demographic labor shortages, |
| 2:06.3 | and discuss why the glory days of central banking might be coming to an unhappy end as we enter the age of the unanchored central banker. |
| 2:16.2 | I'll put a link to his new book in the description below for those of you who'd like to check |
| 2:20.8 | it out. |
| 2:21.8 | It's great to have him back on the channel. |
... |
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