The Ultimate "Stress Test" for the Housing Market: Do We Pass in 2026?

On The Market

BiggerPockets

Investing, Education, Business, News

4.8 • 859 Ratings

🗓️ 28 May 2026

⏱️ 42 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Every recession, crash, and major change in the real estate market has its warning signs. And while most people think these can only be seen in hindsight, we have “stress tests” today that signal corrections, crashes, or rising prices to come. These tests not only test the housing market, but also the economy as a whole, to tell us whether we’re going to spiral down for years or stay afloat. Today, we’re looking at one of the greatest “stress tests” of the housing market—credit. The “canary in the coalmine” of real estate is forced selling. Once this begins, the domino effect can easily get out of control. When sellers can’t pay their bills, and are forced to sell, a race to the bottom is almost inevitable—and there’s one part of the real estate market where this exact scenario is ramping up—fast. In today’s show, we’re detailing the assets and regions most at risk, comparing 2026’s economy to 2008/2009 to see where we stand, going over foreclosure and delinquency numbers, and touching on the newest (concerning) consumer debt numbers quickly starting to rise—will the spillover put the housing market in danger? In This Episode We Cover Our latest “credit stress” report and who is (and isn’t) paying their mortgages 2008 vs. 2026 housing market stats: foreclosures, delinquencies, and more Forced selling has already begun for one (formerly profitable) type of real estate The corner of the housing market seeing double-digit delinquency rates in 2026 Newest consumer debt numbers and why they should concern many Americans And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Find Investor-Friendly Lenders Dave's BiggerPockets Profile On the Market 427 - The 2026 Recession is Here BiggerPockets Forums New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-429. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Every crash, every downturn, every recession has its warning signs. Sometimes you only see them
0:08.4	after the fact. But there are many indicators we can actually watch right now to see if something
0:16.1	sinister is lurking in the housing market or the greater economy.
0:23.3	And luckily, we have good data.
0:30.7	We can actually look and see right now if a big decline or even a 2008-style housing market collapse is right around the corner.
0:33.8	The data that I'm talking about measures levels of stress in the market by looking at credit and debt and how well people are paying back that debt.
0:45.7	We can look at indicators like mortgage delinquencies, credit card delinquencies, private credit, actual foreclosures, and get critical insight into how our economy and how
0:57.1	our housing market may perform in the coming months or years.
1:02.0	The information I'm talking about is not fearmongering.
1:05.5	It's not going to paint some overly rosy description of the market.
1:10.5	And today on the market, we're going to do it.
1:13.0	We're going to stress test the housing market and the rest of the economy and see how
1:17.5	resilient the U.S. economy really is.
1:25.0	Hey, everyone. Welcome to On the Market. I'm Dave Meyer, chief investment officer at Bicker
1:29.9	Pockets. I'm an economic and housing analyst and I've been a real estate investor for 16 years.
1:36.8	Welcome to the show. I am glad to have you all here for an important episode because we're going
1:42.2	to be talking about stress or the lack of stress
1:45.0	in the economy right now. Because a lot of times, recessions, crashes, these kinds of things,
1:50.9	they feel like they come from nowhere. And part of that is true. No one really knows exactly when
1:57.7	or how the market cycles will be timed. But there are indicators that we can look at
2:04.3	that will tell us how risky things are and where we are in the broader economic cycle.
2:11.7	And for that, one of the indicators I personally keep a very close eye on and like to look at is credit stress. It's just a fancy
	...

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