The Truth Behind The SpaceX IPO Everyone Is Ignoring
The Philip DeFranco Show
philip defranco
4.7 • 1.1K Ratings
🗓️ 26 May 2026
⏱️ 29 minutes
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| 0:29.9 | SpaceX may be about to go public in what may be the biggest IPO in history, |
| 0:34.0 | valuing the company at up to $2 trillion and making Elon Musk a certified world's first trillionaire. And the pitch to investors essentially trust him with building a self-sustaining city on Mars with a million people in it. But there's really a lot going on here. So we're going to walk through this step by step and talk about exactly why this pitch is one of the most ambitious, or depending on how you look at it, most absurd propositions in the history of public markets. People will most likely be able to start buying shares of the company around the middle of next month? And I mean, we're talking upwards of $75 billion in new funding. So it'll push the company to $1.5 to $2 trillion. Elon Musk's net worth, probably got to go from over $800 billion between $1.4 and $1.6 trillion in SpaceX, they're going to need the money. Because while its revenues up, its costs are also up even more, so it lost nearly $5 billion last year. With most of those losses coming from its space and AI products, especially since it merged with XAI. In fact, at least for right now, the only profitable part of SpaceX is internet connectivity, which means it's Starlink satellites. But when the company actually released its prospectus for investors last week, the pitch was like, hey, give us your money so we can just double down on all the stuff that's not profitable right now. And to know what many have called an absolutely fantastical claim, it's projected that the market for all of its products would be about $28.5 trillion, which is almost the entire U.S. economy equivalent. And nearly $23 trillion of that is enterprise computing, which basically means data centers in space. But with Elon's pitch being that by putting them in orbit, they can feed off the limitless energy of the sun and exploit the free cooling potential of the vacuum of space. Which some support, though that's an idea that's also been criticized by skeptics who point out that it is actually surprisingly hard to cool a hot object in space, even though the background temperature is insanely cold. |
| 2:02.1 | It has to do with the way that heat travels through a vacuum. |
| 2:04.1 | I'm not gonna get too deep into it. But the point is, is that a normally sized data center would require millions of square meters of panels. Which is then way of places like the Telegraph calling it an absurd proposition. as well as the Wall Street Journal, noting that the company's |
| 2:15.6 | perspective is full of so many red flags |
| 2:17.6 | that it would have scuttled other launches. |
| 2:19.5 | Those including not just the massive bet on AI, As well as the Wall Street Journal, noting that the company's prospectus is full of so many red flags that it would have scuttled other launches. |
| 2:19.3 | Those including not just the massive bet on AI, but also the, quote, incestuous transactions between Elon's companies, such as the $131 million worth of cyber trucks at SpaceX bought. |
| 2:28.9 | Plus, the company itself acknowledges that its growth, its operations, its entire vision is dependent on a single 54-year-old man, much of whose time is occupied running several other huge companies. So if Elon dies, he falls ill or just has a spiritual epiphany and he decides to live the rest of his life in a cave, that ship's gonna be left without a captain. But also, as long as he's at the helm, Elon's got 85% of the company's voting power even after the IPO. And for many |
| 2:51.2 | investors, that concentration of authority in his hands alone is not just a risk, it's the biggest |
| 2:56.0 | appeal. Because Elon, yes, he has gotten this far on a staggering amount of real world success |
| 3:00.4 | for sure. But also, whatever you feel about the man, you cannot deny the influence of his, |
| 3:05.2 | we'll call it, vibes. Right to many of his supporters, he has built this image as the guy who can accomplish literally anything through sheer force of will and personality, even if it seems impossible. And that faith, in his singular abilities, it's evident in this IPO too. Right, Elon, he doesn't get the huge pay package worth $6 to $800 billion unless SpaceX meets two very ambitious conditions. One, reach a total mark evaluation of $7.5 trillion. |
| 3:27.0 | And two, establish a permanent human colony on Mars with at least 1 million inhabitants. |
| 3:31.0 | In fact, the prospectus even featured an artistic rendering of a life on Mars that looks like something out of a sci-fi movie. |
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