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Cato Podcast

The Trade Balance Creed

Cato Podcast

Cato Institute

Cato, Peace, Policy, Politics, Markets, Defense, Government, News, News Commentary, 424708, Immigration, Libertarian

4.5979 Ratings

🗓️ 15 April 2011

⏱️ 6 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

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0:00.0

This is the Cato Daily Podcast for Friday, April 15th, 2011.

0:05.0

I'm Caleb Brown.

0:07.0

We're supposed to get upset when the trade deficit rises.

0:10.0

After all, its wealth leaving the United States, right?

0:13.6

And so the argument goes, a big trade deficit is a drag on growth.

0:18.0

Dan Griswold, director of the Cato Institute's Center for Trade Policy Studies, and author of the new paper, The Trade Balance Creed,

0:24.6

says those claims about growth and trade deficits have the facts almost exactly backwards.

0:30.9

It's almost like a creed that goes unquestioned. This was just in the Associated Press this week

0:36.1

when the new trade numbers came out. Growth slows when imports outpace exports

0:42.2

because more jobs go to foreign workers. Not

0:46.0

attributed or anything. It's just there. Rising trade deficits are bad for

0:49.3

growth or a drag for growth. In the Keynesian, it's a leakage of demand abroad. And what I've tried to do in this

0:55.8

new Cato paper is challenge that on two grounds, in theory and in practice. And in theory, it doesn't hold up because it's just not true that every

1:07.0

item we import is one less that we make we import lots of stuff that we don't even

1:11.0

make here

1:12.2

uh... imports tend to compliment u.s. of stuff that we don't even make here.

1:12.9

Imports tend to complement U.S. production.

1:16.1

Raw materials, intermediate inputs, machinery come in and actually make us more productive.

1:22.1

But even in the Keynesian framework, when we buy exports, those

1:27.3

dollars don't go abroad and then evaporate or end up in a cookie jar under somebody's

1:31.9

mattress. They flow back.

1:33.7

If they don't flow back to buy U.S. goods and services, well, we run a trade deficit,

...

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