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It's all over. It's official. We are now in the fag end of Conservative rule. There's only

a year or so before the next general election and the opposition has an insurmountable lead.

The polling average has them about 18 points ahead of the Tories. What do I mean by insurmountable?

Well, there is no precedent for the government being able to claw back enough support

to stay in office. Bear in mind, they need a majority because eight no one going to form a

coalition with this lot. So, as the brilliant polling number cruncher, Elephano writes,

in almost all cases, the government does claw back some support in a run-up to an election.

This is a swing back effect that the government enjoys. Now, you can see how that's going to happen

in the case of the Conservatives because a chunk of their old supporters are currently telling

pollsters that they don't know who they're going to vote for. They're basically disillusioned,

annoyed with the current government, but they haven't made the jump to Labour. Now, expect some of

those to gruntly march back to the Conservatives. They're not happy, but they'll end up going,

well, we're going to stick to the Tories and that matters because at the moment, they're taking

out of the polling pie if you like. So, they come back in and they'll increase the Tories' polling

position. But you see, as everyone points out to win a majority, the Tories need to win the

popular vote by about seven points. So, they would need to narrow the polling gap in the space

of a year by 25 points. Now, that has never happened in history. On average, in fact, since 1945,

the government has only managed to narrow the polls by six points, which would still give Labour

at 118 seat majority. The biggest shift recorded was Howard Wilson narrowing the polls by 20

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