The

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My guest today is David Shore.

David Shore is a political data scientist.

He worked for the Obama campaign and was described in New York magazine as

Obama's in-house Nate Silver. You may know David's name because he was fired in June over a

tweet that was widely viewed as innocent. The tweet cited research showing that riots, unlike nonviolent protests, tend to move voters to the right.

I wanted to talk to David about the circumstances of his firing, but for legal reasons,

David can't talk about it publicly. Fortunately, he is an extremely interesting person outside

of his cancellation, and he's the

perfect person to talk to about the lessons of the 2020 election.

David was really a joy to talk to and a fountain of information, and I recommend you all

follow him on Twitter.

We talk about the basics of polling.

We talk about why the polls underpredicted Trump's

performance in both 2016 and 2020. We talk about David's skepticism of the so-called shy Trump voter

effect, used as a tool to understand why people voted for Trump. We talk about why Trump's share of the minority vote

increased between 2016 and 2020. We talk about what the 2020 election has done to the idea

that demography is destiny. We talk about the implications of getting rid of the electoral college, the surprising

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