Welcome to the Euro Intelligence Podcast. I'm Wolfgang Munchau and with me are Zuzana Muncheng and Jack Smith.

Today we want to talk about three related or potentially related Black Swan events, starting with the potential consequences of our sanctions that the EU is currently imposing on Russia. As we speak, the EU is

putting the final touches to the oil sanctions. But other Black Swan events are the food crisis,

not a consequence of our sanctions, but the consequence of the war itself. And the cost of living crisis, which is in part a consequence of the war itself

and part a consequence of the pandemic and the supply chain problems, and also aggravated by

our sanctions.

So there is a common theme among all the three events.

The EU, as we speak, is putting the final touches to the oil sanctions

against Russia. Jack, you've written about the subject. What is your take? Is this enough?

Is this, what damage is this going to do to Russia? The short answer is probably a lot.

It's actually quite a comprehensive package as it is shaped up so far.

You know, a couple of things very obviously from the headlines. One of them is that when the embargo does come into force, which for most countries will be, you know, it'll be a six-month phase in for crude and by the end of the year for refined products, that is total, right?

We're not talking about import tariffs.

We're not talking about escrow accounts.

That's like it.

It's only a fifth of what they get from us.

I mean, in the billion dollars we send them each day in oil and gas revenues, that's about a fifth.

So he's still getting four-fifths

of the revenues and the prices of everything is rising by so much that he's probably getting more

now than he was getting before. Well, there are two details on that. So one of them is that I think

the most consequential part of the sanctions is something that is not being very widely covered

or publicized, which is that the sanctions will include insurance for tanker shipments.

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