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🗓️ 8 July 2025
⏱️ 16 minutes
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0:00.0 | The world's demographics are changing. |
0:02.0 | Across all countries and particularly developed markets, populations are getting old. |
0:07.0 | So what will global aging mean for economic future? |
0:10.0 | I'm Alison Nathan and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges. |
0:13.0 | Today I'm sitting down with my colleague Kevin Daly, co-head of the economics team covering Central and Eastern Europe, |
0:19.0 | the Middle East and Africa within global |
0:21.3 | macro research. Kevin, welcome back to exchanges. Thank you very much, Alice. I'm good to see you. |
0:26.5 | So, Kevin, you've done a lot of work around your path to 2075 series looking at what the global |
0:33.2 | economy could look like in 50 years from now. And you recently released a report about global aging. |
0:39.4 | It's no secret that the global population is aging, but first give us the facts behind that. What |
0:44.5 | measure do you look at to determine this? And what does it show? I mean, Alison, however you measure it, |
0:51.8 | the global population is aging. So if you look at median ages in developed economies 50 years ago, the median age was 30. |
1:01.2 | Now it's 43 over the next 50 years. |
1:04.1 | That's expected to rise to 47. |
1:06.7 | For emerging economies, they're significantly younger, but the median age there has also risen from 19 to 30 currently |
1:14.8 | and is projected to rise to 40 over the next 50 years. |
1:19.0 | The other way that economists like to look at it |
1:21.1 | is to look at developments in the working age ratio. |
1:23.9 | So what is the share of the population |
1:26.3 | that is between the ages of 15 to 64? |
1:29.7 | For developed economies, that peaked just before the turn of the century around 67%. It's currently |
1:36.6 | at 63% and is projected over the next 50 years to fall to 57%. So however you cut it, the global population is aging. |
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