Okay, you know, we've had a problem here.

13 minutes to the moon, season two.

I was thinking that we were going to survive.

Episode 1, available now.

Hello, welcome to Business Daily from the BBC.

I'm Manuela Salagossa.

In this edition, predicting the future, do you have the skills?

One is to be pretty good a pattern recognition.

The next thing is having cognitive reflection.

When you see something that may have an easy answer, you pause and you say, is that the right answer?

We're talking about super forecasting.

It's been in the news lately,

not least because the British Prime Minister's top advisor is a big fan,

but are super forecasters really more accurate than the wisdom of the crowd?

People have lots of intrinsic biases for different things,

and the idea is if you actually take all of that information and aggregate it,

that will give you a really good idea of what's going to happen. That's all here in Business Daily

from the BBC. These days, predicting the future is no dark art. It's actually a science, specifically

a science called super forecasting. You can

actually develop skills to get good at it, because what super forecasters do is apply modern

analytical and statistical practice to the art of predicting events. Well, my colleague Amy Charles

works for BBC Future, part of the BBC's international-facing website that

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