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Motley Fool Money

The State of Weight-Loss Drugs

Motley Fool Money

The Motley Fool

Business, Investing

4.43K Ratings

🗓️ 1 March 2025

⏱️ 30 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

$150 billion. That’s how much some experts estimate weight-loss drugs could bring in in sales within the next five years. Motley Fool analyst Karl Thiel joins Ricky Mulvey to check in on the GLP-1 landscape. They also discuss: - How weight-loss drugs actually work, and how big-name prescriptions differ from each other. - What investors need to know about Ozempic and Mounjarno’s patent cliffs. - The scenarios in which Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are actually undervalued. Companies discussed: LLY, NOVO, HIMS, PFE, RHHBY, VKTX, GPCR, ISRG Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: Karl Thiel Producer: Mary Long Engineer: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

There is this number that keeps getting thrown around, and that is that this is going to be a $150 billion annual market.

0:08.0

Now, I feel that it's one of those numbers that's become kind of thoughtless and is not really getting reexamined.

0:14.0

A lot of assumptions go into that about how widely these are covered by insurance, about how long people end up staying on some of these drugs, and

0:22.6

a number of other factors. If you assume that Lily and Novo Nordis continue to dominate

0:28.9

the market, and you assume it really does go to $150 billion, well, you know, Lily starts

0:34.9

to grow into that valuation and they start to look pretty reasonable just a few years out.

0:46.4

I'm Mary Long, and that's Motley Fool analyst Carl Teal. Weight loss drugs like Ozympic and Manjaro have dominated the new cycle for the past couple of years now.

0:55.0

But other GLP1 drugs have been on the market for the past two decades.

1:00.0

Still, the more recent growth of these drugs has a lot of investors very optimistic.

1:05.0

And there are other opportunities in this market beyond injections that are currently under development.

1:11.7

My colleague, Ricky Mulvey, caught up with Carl to check in on the state of weight loss drugs

1:16.2

and the science behind them. They also discuss the material differences between key versions

1:21.5

of different weight loss drugs, concerns about side effects and the role of telehealth in prescribing

1:26.7

GLP ones, plus how retail

1:29.4

investors ought to approach this still growing space.

1:51.4

One of the great societal shifts of the past decade, and I would say into the next decade, is the introduction of weight loss drugs. They've driven sales growth for big pharma companies,

1:56.0

including Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. For example, this past year, the sales of obesity care products for

2:01.8

Novo rose by more than 50 percent, and Eli Lilly's Manjaro rose by 60 percent right now,

2:08.6

an estimated one in 20 American adults are on weight loss drugs. Carl, as we get started,

2:14.2

that's the number salad, but what do you make of all of these results in the exploding popularity of GLP1 drugs? It's remarkable, but there's kind of a lot of

2:22.6

subtlety behind those numbers that you just talked about. And I'm sure we'll get further into it.

2:28.0

But one right off the bat is that you mentioned one in 20 people being on these drugs.

...

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