Welcome to Rates and barrels. It's Thursday, September 5th, special shout out to the Live Hive, joining us here on YouTube.

Got a great show lined up. Derek and Ryper, you know, Sarahs, Trevor May, all here with you. We have an extension, a September contract extension. You rarely see that. Matt Chapman getting a long-term deal to stay with the Giants. We'll dig into that. We had a combined no-hitter from the Cubs on Wednesday. We have a 10th birthday to celebrate again baseball's replay system, which people

were pretty mad about when it was introduced, but I feel like most of us have become comfortable

with it. We'll talk about a few things we'd like to see changed, maybe before the replay system

can go buy some beer down the road. We're going to take a look at an attempt to quantify

predictability of pitchers and their decisions on the mound.

We'll look at some pitches that are actually predictable, like they do what hitters think they're going to do, and a few that don't.

So predictability, a big theme of the show today.

And maybe we'll take a few questions throughout the show as well.

So we get started today with Matt Chapman, who's going to be in San Francisco for the long haul. It is a six-year extension to keep Matt Chapman with the Giants, $151 million. Because of the contract he had signed this past off season, he had an opt-out coming up this winter. He was going to use that because it's been a great season again for Matt Chapman. A couple of things kind of jumped off the page looking at what he's done so far this year, guys. Lowest K percentage we've seen for Matt Chapman since 2019, 24.4%. To see that number kind of trend back in the right direction for a player on the wrong side of 30. I think that's encouraging.

It's a sign of a bat that might age pretty well.

And he's 13 for 15 as a base stealer.

This is a guy that had 11 career steals entering this season.

So, you know, the plate skills look good.

He's added this speed element and the defense is still elite.

13 defensive runs saved, ties him for fifth across all positions in baseball this season

that makes them first at third base.

Tons the like here, I think the only question would be how well does the entire package age?

Because six years is a long time and year one of that deal next year will be Chapman's age 32 season.

You have one position player in baseball this year, one that's over the year of 30,

over the age of 35, that's going to be a league average.

One.

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