The science of polls and the art of spinning them
To the Point
KCRW
4.4 • 583 Ratings
🗓️ 27 October 2016
⏱️ 53 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
During the Republican primaries, Donald Trump was happy to point at polls that showed him defeating a crowd of professional politicians. Now, most polls indicate that he won't beat Hillary Clinton. He calls them "phony." We ask prominent pollsters about who to believe.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | A jail stint can really disrupt someone's life. |
| 0:03.0 | You can lose a job, a relationship, or thousands of dollars on fees, fines and bail. |
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| 0:16.0 | There's no glamour in a jailhouse wedding. |
| 0:19.0 | Off the block, all six episodes tracing the path from city block to jail block and back |
| 0:24.1 | are now available on KCRW's iTunes page. |
| 0:30.2 | From KCRW in Santa Monica and PRI, Public Radio International. This is To the Point. |
| 0:39.0 | Confused by political polling? You're not alone. |
| 0:45.6 | Hello again. I'm Aron Alney, and this is To the Point. On the average, national polls show Hillary Clinton will likely defeat Donald Trump in next month's election. Trump's response is familiar. |
| 0:55.4 | Phony polls put out by phony media. |
| 0:58.5 | But from time to time, other polls show Trump doing better. |
| 1:01.5 | Some news media report there's a close race, and Trump can claim he'll be the eventual |
| 1:05.6 | winner. |
| 1:06.6 | So how's a prospective voter to know how the election is really going? |
| 1:10.5 | Is political polling in art or a science? |
| 1:13.2 | We'll talk to some leading practitioners about how they come up with numbers that can influence the ultimate outcome, |
| 1:18.9 | whether they're right or wrong. |
| 1:21.0 | Today's talking point, the pirates are on the verge of taking political power in Iceland. |
| 1:26.5 | First, here's the news. |
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