The Science of Politics

The Dispatch Podcast

The Dispatch

News, Politics

4.6 • 3.3K Ratings

🗓️ 23 October 2020

⏱️ 49 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Is the presidential race where the polls say it is? What might pollsters be missing this election cycle? Is there a scenario in which Biden wins the electoral college handedly and Republicans somehow hold the Senate? Polls suggest that Republican senators’ reelection odds aren’t looking too sunny in Maine, Colorado, and Arizona. But what about Republican Senator Thom Tillis in North Carolina? “Everything comes down to whether a late breaking sex scandal in North Carolina can preserve a seat that Republicans a few weeks ago thought was lost,” says Josh Kraushaar, National Journal’s senior national political columnist, on today’s episode. “Ultimately, they’re hoping on a Democratic blunder on the last month of the campaign to save the Senate.” Join Sarah, Steve and Josh for a conversation about prospective voter turnout, party infighting on both sides of the aisle, and the senators who are distancing themselves from Trump to save the Senate. Show Notes: -The Economist’s presidential election forecast, “Republicans learn the benefits of diversity … the hard way” by Josh Kraushaar in National Journal, “McCarthy locking up support despite fears of GOP losses” by Melanie Zanona and John Bresnahan. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to our special Friday dispatch podcast. I'm your host Sarah Isger joined by Steve Hayes.
0:06.3	This podcast is brought to you by the dispatch.com and speaking of the dispatch.com, we have
0:12.9	a big post election event plan. November 9th and 10th, you can go to what's next event.com
0:20.2	and check it out. Tickets are $100 and they include a new complimentary subscription to
0:25.1	the dispatch. So far, we've got folks like congresswoman Liz Cheney, Senator Ben Sass,
0:30.4	Senator Tim Scott. We'll be talking about what that election actually means, the future
0:35.8	of the Republican Party, Congress under a Trump or Biden administration and foreign policy,
0:42.5	the economy, COVID, all of it. So we hope you join us. That's what's next event.com,
0:48.4	November 9th and 10th. All right, today we have very special guest, Josh Kraschauer. Josh
0:55.6	is the national journal's daily senior national political columnist. He pens the weekly
1:00.7	against the grain column and he's super fun and friendly and we love talking to Josh.
1:21.1	Let's dive right in, Josh. Welcome to the pod. Biggest takeaway from the debate last night.
1:26.1	Biggest takeaway is that the race hasn't changed much at all, but look, that is the performance
1:34.5	from President Trump. I mean, it was, you know, it was about as good as you'll get from the president.
1:38.4	And would that type of performance have made a difference if it had been his first debate performance?
1:43.6	Yeah, I mean, look, the Republicans across the board from the president's own staff to
1:49.2	Senator and House Republican operatives saw their numbers collapse in the aftermath of the first
1:54.7	debate. In fact, that was one of the bigger set of movements this entire year. So yeah, I mean,
2:00.0	they would have liked to have seen that version of President Trump in the first debate. Now,
2:04.8	I don't think it would have made the difference between, you know, President Trump making this a
2:09.6	close race and where the race stands right now. But look, that degree of discipline, we don't
2:14.5	often see from the president. And I imagine there was a little bit of crap, a little bit of training
	...

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