The Referendum by Numbers: Trade
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BBC
4.6 • 3.7K Ratings
🗓️ 17 June 2016
⏱️ 12 minutes
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Summary
If it seems the EU referendum debate just involves two politicians shouting contradictory statistics at each other - then we are here to help. In this series, we're giving you a break from the politicians and we're going to try to figure out the truth. Bracing concept, isn't it? We'll be looking at some of the big questions - the cost of being a member, immigration, lawmaking and regulation. But today we're looking at trade. Tim Harford asks if the UK would be better off in or out when it comes to trade with other nations.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hello and welcome to the last in our special series examining the facts and the less |
| 0:11.2 | than facts behind the EU referendum campaign. |
| 0:15.0 | A big part of the debate has been about economics |
| 0:18.0 | and a big part of the economics of the EU is about trade. |
| 0:22.0 | It's probably fair to say that most economists think EU membership |
| 0:25.5 | is good for the British economy. Whenever economists are surveyed we usually get |
| 0:29.9 | a large majority suggesting that leaving the EU would damage the British economy and that economic |
| 0:35.6 | consensus is based on the view that free trade is good for the British economy and that the |
| 0:39.9 | EU is good for British trade. Now there are some economists who do think Brexit would be good |
| 0:45.8 | for the UK economy in the long run. Again that's because they think trade is a good idea, |
| 0:51.2 | but the UK could trade more if it left the EU. Here's Andrew Lilleco, a prominent |
| 0:56.6 | economist in the Leave campaign. For all the talk of there being 53 trade agreements or whatever that the people go on about. |
| 1:04.0 | The vast majority of the countries with which the EU currently has trade agreements outside the EU |
| 1:08.4 | are countries such as Guernsey, Jersey, Andorra, Sanarino, the Faroe Islands. |
| 1:14.7 | They really only have three deals of any significance which they've cut, |
| 1:18.3 | Mexico, South Africa and Korea. |
| 1:20.7 | They have no deals with any of these large countries at all. We're not giving up some |
| 1:24.6 | deal with these countries by leaving the EU. The EU just has been incapable of securing a deal |
| 1:29.5 | with those countries. So could we do better trade deals outside the EU? I spoke to someone who stands well to one side of the debate about Brexit. |
| 1:38.0 | Chad P. Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington DC |
| 1:45.1 | and former lead economist at the World Bank. In terms of the UK's exports, like many |
| 1:51.2 | countries they've been shipping a smaller share of their exports to the continent, |
... |
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