The Recession You’re Already In (But Don’t Recognize Yet) - A discussion with Jeff Snider
Ken McElroy Show
Ken McElroy
4.8 • 692 Ratings
🗓️ 17 June 2025
⏱️ 47 minutes
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Summary
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | So, Jeff, in May you predicted that we're already in a recession. |
| 0:08.1 | So I'd love to start off with, you know, that incredible talk you did at Rebel Capitalist. |
| 0:13.6 | What are the things that you see? |
| 0:15.6 | Because it certainly feels like we're in one, but it's not being reported. |
| 0:19.7 | Yeah, well, I mean, just to be a little pedantic here, Ken, |
| 0:22.3 | what I said was that we never left the last one. So we've been in a recession for the last couple |
| 0:27.6 | years, which is, I think, first of all, a lot of people have a reaction to you. Whenever you use |
| 0:32.5 | the word recession, they have this singular picture in their mind that a recession looks a certain way. And if it doesn't |
| 0:39.9 | look that way, then it must not be a recession. Everything must be fine. So what I said was and what I |
| 0:45.0 | showed was that if you look around the rest of the world and including the U.S. labor market and |
| 0:49.4 | the U.S. GDP 2, what you see is that we have been in what looks like a different kind of recession ever |
| 0:56.6 | since 2022. So the banking crisis, the aftermath, all of that stuff, what happened was the |
| 1:02.9 | economy that was modestly recovering from the pandemic and the lockdowns, really more |
| 1:07.5 | the lockdowns than anything, just kind of stopped in 2022. |
| 1:11.6 | As prices shot ahead, as oil prices spiked, it was just way too much for the economy to absorb. |
| 1:17.2 | And it just, it short-circuited everything. |
| 1:19.5 | It kind of froze everything in place. |
| 1:22.1 | So because that doesn't look like what everybody has in their mind for a recession, |
| 1:25.8 | you used to term recession, you're like, oh, that's crazy. That's not happening. Even though most people, by and large, |
| 1:30.8 | their perception of the economy is something doesn't feel right here. Something isn't, |
| 1:35.2 | it doesn't seem like the economy is strong and resilient, as Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve |
| 1:41.0 | keeps saying. Certainly wasn't strong like the Biden administration kept |
... |
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