You think a recession is more likely now than maybe you would have said six months ago?

Well, I think most of our manager would say that they are surprised at where they are now

compared to how they thought they were going to feel six months ago at this point.

And not less than a lot of businesses.

It's Wednesday, July the 12th, 2023, and welcome back to Goodfellows, a Hoover Institution broadcast that examines social, economic, political, and geopolitical issues. My name's Neil Ferguson, and I am an historian and the Milbank Family Senior Fellow here at the Hoover Institution. I'll be moderating today's show, standing in for

Bill Whelan, who is off this week. And joining me, as usual, are my fellow good fellows. Please welcome

the noted economist John Cochran, author of the monumental new book, the fiscal theory of the

price level, which we're going to be talking about. And sitting next to him in Zoomland,

the host of Hoover's Battleground series, an author of the book of that same title,

the historian and strategist, Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster, who served as National Security

Advisor from 2017 to 2018. John and H.R. are also Hoover Senior Fellows. By the way, if you like this show,

watching us on YouTube, just take a minute to hit the like button and the subscribe button. It

really helps us with the all-powerful, all-knowing YouTube algorithm and probably our AI overlords,

too. Okay, we're going to do some economics this week.

Today was inflation number day. And it's a great time, I think, to catch up with John and how he's

thinking about the current state of the U.S. economy. We've been warned for what it

feels like, at least a year by many economists. The recession was imminent here in the United States,

and yet, according to the most recent jobs report, the economy added nearly 340,000 jobs in May.

The unemployment rate remains at a pretty low level by historical standards at

just 3.7%. And let's just say this isn't what you'd expect after more than a year of interest

rate hikes and some quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve. Now, this brings to mind

a famous observation unconnected, in Adventures in the Screen

...