The real state of the Russian economy
Business Daily
BBC
4.4 • 816 Ratings
🗓️ 14 September 2022
⏱️ 17 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
As Ukraine seemingly makes dramatic advances on the battlefield, we look at what this may say about the situation inside Russia itself. Military analysts are describing what seems to be a depleted Russian military machine, lacking in morale, but also possibly lacking in the kinds of military equipment it needs to sustain its war effort. One estimate in August put the loss of hardware (not including missiles) at $16 billion. That's hard to replace, given the supply problems and falling growth brought about by wide-ranging western economic sanctions.
We look inside the country at the way the economy is progressing, with the thoughts of one Russian business-owner, Dmitry Nechaev, and from western-based economists, Sergei Guriev at Sciences Po University in Paris, and Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist at the International Institute of Finance. The US-based political scientist Stephen Crowley, of Oberlin College, then considers how much a weakened economy is likely to create the type of political pressure to make President Putin reassess his war strategy.
Presenter/producer: Ed Butler
(Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin at the desk in his office; Credit: BBC)
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hi there, welcome to Business Daily. My name's Ed Butler. On today's show, we're going to go inside Russia to find out after six months of sanctions, how is the economy getting on? |
| 0:12.5 | It's about survival, and in survival mode, the Russians are doing pretty good. You can still buy a Mercedes-Benz or, I don't know, a Chevy truck or an iPhone. |
| 0:22.5 | You can buy all these things. Just pay more than before. But is this just the beginning? |
| 0:28.1 | Some say much darker clouds are now looming over the Russian economy and Russia's military project. |
| 0:34.9 | We've seen huge decline, certainly, in the automobile industry, |
| 0:39.3 | where foreign firms have simply pulled out altogether. |
| 0:42.6 | But we're also seeing it in the steel industry, coal mining for coking coal and so forth. |
| 0:48.1 | They could be in trouble. |
| 0:50.2 | That's all to come in Business Daily from the BBC. |
| 1:06.7 | It has been a dramatic week on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine. |
| 1:14.6 | Clear signs of wide-ranging military advances by the Ukrainians into what was Russian occupied territory. |
| 1:20.2 | Russia's troops, in some cases, have simply abandoned their guns and equipment and are running, |
| 1:21.4 | according to reports. |
| 1:35.6 | In Moscow, even some pro-Kremlin pundits on the main news channels are acknowledging a significant military failure. |
| 1:45.3 | The people who convinced President Putin that the special operation will be fast and effective, that will come in with our National Guard and bring things to order, that the Ukrainians will either flee |
| 1:50.3 | or want to join us in Russia. These advisors really set us up. We now have to understand that |
| 1:56.3 | it's absolutely impossible to defeat Ukraine using these resources and war methods. |
| 2:02.1 | The question is, though, to what extent do these military setbacks reflect more systemic pressures? |
| 2:08.2 | One recently leaked document from Russia's finance ministry suggested that the nation, |
| 2:13.1 | which is already in recession, had to set aside some $6 billion in compensation payments to families |
| 2:19.3 | of dead service personnel. There are some 50,000 casualties, it indicates. Another estimate from |
| 2:26.0 | a Western Research Institute suggests Russia has lost $16 billion worth of hardware already. That was |
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