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Full Signal

The REAL risk of a record stock market! | Kevin Gordon

Full Signal

Phil Rosen

Investing, Business

4.818 Ratings

🗓️ 19 May 2026

⏱️ 36 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Kevin Gordon is the Head of Macro Research and Strategy for the Schwab Center for Financial Research. He joins Phil Rosen on Full Signal to discuss the top-heavy stock market, record-breaking earnings, the 1998-like chip boom, and the discrepancies between hard and soft data.


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Timestamps:


0:00 - Top-heavy stock market

2:19 - 1973 breadth levels

5:00 - Tech concentration

7:22 - Mag 7 vs S&P 493 convergence trade

9:38 - AI productivity and the missing hiring boom

13:46 - Valuations are bad for market timing

17:02 - Dot-com comparisons

21:05 - Penalty for missing earnings

25:27 - Semis rally like 1998

28:00 - Hard data vs soft data


Disclosure: Brokerage services provided by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA & SIPC. Investing involves risk. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool by Public Advisors. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. See disclosures at public.com/disclosures/ga. See terms of Match Program at https://public.com/disclosures/matchprogram Matched funds must remain in your account for at least 5 years. Match rate and other terms are subject to change at any time.


#podcast #investing #markets #macro #stocks #bitcoin #fed

Transcript

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0:00.0

Kevin, we're at record highs right now in the stock market.

0:02.8

And coming into the year, there was this story of broadening out.

0:05.7

But my understanding is that that has sort of dwindled and now we're getting back into this top heavy situation.

0:11.2

What's going on here?

0:12.7

Yes, you're right to point that out.

0:14.3

I think that if you segment the market into really just sort of two phases so far this year. You could sort of take everything up

0:22.9

until the war in Iran, obviously. But I would actually extend that to the low that we had on

0:28.5

March 30th for the S&P 500. So since then, it has been this sort of tale of two markets, as I've

0:34.3

been calling it, where you do have the really big companies and just a few of them at this point in the S&P that are, you know, continuing to rip higher. Of course, we've had a little bit of weakness in the past couple of days, but the rest of the market, the equalated S&P 500, if you want to use that as the proxy, has failed to keep up. So, yes, in some ways, we're sort of back to almost regularly

0:55.7

scheduled programming, you know, before the beginning of 26. And you sort of flipped that

1:00.5

whole consensus call at the beginning of the year, which was international outperforming the U.S.

1:05.8

You know, big tech, ceding some leadership to small caps. But what I do find interesting,

1:14.1

and I think it sort of goes against the narrative that it is just a few big tech stocks that are leading, there are still meaningful pockets of

1:18.9

outperformance in the market.

1:21.0

It's just harder to find and sort of harder to come by and maybe lost in the headlines.

1:25.3

So just as an example,

1:44.2

small cap tech has outperform large cap tech significantly over the past year. It doesn't get covered a lot. And, you know, that's a little bit, admittedly, that's a little bit of a cherry picking, I'll admit on my side and just picking that one year time horizon, because you could extend that out maybe a couple more years. And of course, large cap tech has done really well and outperformed. But I think that is an instance where you do want to see that,

1:50.0

you know, it's in performance terms. It's not just a couple of companies that are up. But I will say,

1:55.1

you know, moving forward, if it does sort of continue where you get this split, not just in terms of

2:00.2

a couple of stocks lifting the S&P,

2:02.1

but in terms of underlying breadth, you know, materially weakening. And if it does break down,

2:07.3

historically, that is consistent with more, you know, more corrective phases and corrective

...

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