The Real Problem with Jackson Hole
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 27 August 2021
⏱️ 26 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
I was going to use this week’s Dividend Cafe to continue the discussion on China, one that I more exhaustively began three weeks ago, then expanded upon last week. And in fact, I have done a podcast interview with Louis Gave of Gavekal Research on this very topic, poking him and pushing him around his thesis that China’s strategic objectives in their bond market and currency are aligned with the objectives of U.S. investors. But I am going to hold this for next week, first of all, to give my communications team time to properly curate and edit that interview, but also because I believe there is a more timely message that is needed this week.
By the time you are reading this, I presume Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, will have given his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. I am very purposely writing this before such a speech has been delivered or pre-speech teasers on its content have been circulated. I am, therefore, obviously writing it before I know the market reaction to the speech (stock or bond market).
This is on purpose. I do not want the focus to be on what is or is not said at Jackson Hole today, or what the market does or does not do after such speech.
I want Dividend Cafe to be about the extraordinary problem that we even care about so much, to begin with about this speech. Far more than anything that is said today is the fact that there even is such a focus on it to begin with. And this hype, this prioritization, this captivation in financial markets, with one man giving one speech on one day, is symbolic of where I feel so much has gone wrong.
And what THAT is and what it specifically means to you is the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.5 | Hello and welcome to this week's Dividend Cafe video and podcast. I guess I get to cheat a little bit here with the podcast and video participants |
| 0:24.9 | because now as I'm talking, truth be told, J. Pal's speech in Jackson Hole is out. But when I |
| 0:33.2 | wrote Diven and Cafe, it was not out. And so I think the prophetic prowess is somewhat diminished here |
| 0:42.9 | for you all because I'm just going to simply tell you that he said, oh, we're probably going to look |
| 0:48.1 | to taper later in the year and maybe early in the next year and we still want to make sure the economy's |
| 0:52.7 | clear and blah, blah, |
| 0:54.2 | blah. So he said basically the exact same things I could have told you for a couple months that |
| 0:59.0 | he was going to say. If I did say for a couple months he was going to say. But I purposely |
| 1:04.4 | wrote Dividy Cafe this morning before his speech because I wanted to do, and I'm about to go into for you all, a broader |
| 1:14.7 | subject about my critiques of the Fed. And I did not want them in the slightest way polluted by |
| 1:21.1 | anything that happened or didn't happen at Jackson Hole, which I believe was going to be a |
| 1:25.6 | nothing burger for some time and was. |
| 1:28.5 | People could say, well, look, the Dow's up over 200. |
| 1:31.1 | You know, first of all, that's nothing. |
| 1:32.6 | Second of all, it was down 200 yesterday. |
| 1:34.4 | Okay, so in 24 hours, we're completely flat in markets as I'm sitting here recording. |
| 1:40.7 | But see, what inspired this topic this week, and in fact has caused me to sort of put off into next week ongoing talk about China and Chinese investment opportunity or Chinese investment risk, including kind of pulling in one of the prominent economists on this subject in the world, Louis Gov of GovCal Research. |
| 2:02.6 | I'm doing that next Friday because I wanted this week to focus around the Fed because I have spent the last four days |
| 2:09.9 | when we weren't dealing appropriately with the absolute disaster and tragedy in Afghanistan in financial news. |
| 2:17.4 | Every single thing is pointing to, oh, what is Powell going to say in Jackson Hole? |
| 2:21.5 | And I've had this morning in between 3.30 a.m. and 8.30 a.m. 100 pop-ups, texts, tweets, |
... |
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