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forward slash free. Hi, Hi everyone Julian here from Global Macro Investor with another update.

For those of you who don't know me or haven't seen me, I head up Global Macro Research at Global Macro Investor with Raoul.

And I've been coming on this year doing kind of a number of updates around our core thinking on the business cycle and I thought that today would be an interesting time to come back and update you on our views on for Q4.

Now for those of you who watched the last in focus from Raoul, what we did is we went

through a presentation around Tesla and this big kind of inverse head and shoulders pattern and then we worked backwards from that bullish chart to construct kind of a narrative around what would be required for that to break out, right?

So we covered that from a number of different angles, you know, from macro to liquidity.

And I thought that I would do the same thing again today.

Start with a chart and then we would kind of talk through

around what would be required for it to kind of all kick off and take place.

So what I'm going to do today is I'm again going to run through a presentation with you

guys starting with a chart and then we'll look at it from all kind of core angles including the business cycle

Inflation sort of our thoughts around where we are in the cycle,

via early cycle, late cycle, because that's

another extremely loud narrative in the market right now,

as well as liquidity and importantly also sentiment.

So I'm gonna pull this up.

So the first chart I want to show you,

and this is the chart that is going to be a basis around this presentation is the

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