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More or Less: Behind the Stats

The prime minister in statistical bother

More or Less: Behind the Stats

BBC

Business, Mathematics, Science, News Commentary, News

4.63.5K Ratings

🗓️ 9 February 2022

⏱️ 29 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Boris Johnson has been ticked off for misleading Parliament on jobs and on crime. He claimed that the number of people in employment has been rising - when it’s been falling. And he made a claim that crime has fallen - when it’s risen. We discuss the truth, and what Parliament can do to defend it. Plus, we examine the rules around testosterone and trans women’s participation in elite sport, and the spirit of Donald Rumsfeld is with us as we try to navigate the largely unknown world of fungi.

Transcript

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0:00.0

BBC Sounds Music Radio Podcasts

0:04.4

Hello and welcome to More or Less, the show about naughty numbers where the grown-ups

0:10.2

are always in charge. This week the spirit of Donald Rumsfeld is with us as we try

0:15.4

to navigate the largely unknown world of fungi. We examine the rules around testosterone

0:21.4

and transwomen's participation in elite sport. But first, Prime Minister Boris Johnson

0:27.5

has been in a spot of bother in the past few weeks. No, not that bother. The kind of

0:33.2

bother we really care about. Statistical bother. First up, there's been some apparently

0:39.0

good news about employment numbers. There are now more people in work than there

0:44.2

were before the pandemic. There were 500,000 more people in work now than there were when

0:51.0

the pandemic began. 500,000 more jobs today than there were when the pandemic began. Record

0:57.5

numbers of people in work, 420,000 more than there were before the pandemic began. 420,000

1:05.9

more people in work now than before. The pandemic began. Record numbers of people in work.

1:11.6

We have more people in employment and more people in the payroll. Now there were before

1:17.8

the pandemic began. But last week the Office for Statistics Regulation

1:22.1

wrote to number 10 pointing out that most of these statements were untrue. It seems the

1:27.4

message didn't get through to the Prime Minister though, because the day after the letter

1:31.0

arrived, he was at it again. More people in work now than before the

1:36.0

pandemic began and that is the record it's coming. So what's going on? I've been speaking

1:41.4

to Tony Wilson, the director of the Institute for Employment Studies.

1:45.9

The Prime Minister has repeatedly said, as have other ministers, that there are more people

1:50.3

in work than before the pandemic. To do that, they're using PAYYE data, which is data from

1:57.0

pay as you earn tax records, supplied to the HM revenue and customs and are now used

...

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