The Potential of Future Conflict with China: Professor Hal Brands

Intelligence Matters

CBS News

(154991), News, Cbs, Politics, Government

4.6 • 3.3K Ratings

🗓️ 10 August 2022

⏱️ 42 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In this episode of Intelligence Matters, host Michael Morell speaks with Hal Brands, Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and author of the new book, Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, about China's economic, political and demographic trajectory and the percolating risk of conflict with Beijing in the coming years. Brands explains why he believes China, rather than being on the rise, is peaking as a global power and as a result may engage in more destabilizing behavior. Brands and Morell explore how certain external tailwinds - which once propelled China's rise - have become headwinds, and may be driving President Xi Jinping's tightening grip on political power. They also discuss the effect of Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taipei, different scenarios and timelines for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, as well as how the conflict in Ukraine may - or may not - affect Xi's calculus.

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Transcript

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0:00.0	This is Intelligence Matters, with former acting director of the CIA, Michael Morel, brought to you by
0:07.4	Palantir Technologies, foundational software of tomorrow delivered today.
0:13.8	We can be working more closely with partners to turn a Chinese assault on Taiwan into a larger regional war,
0:20.3	which I think would have a larger deterrent effect on China.
0:22.8	It's one thing of China has to take on the United States and Taiwan. Another thing of China has to take on the United States
0:27.8	Taiwan, Japan, Australia, and so on and so forth.
0:30.6	And those are the sorts of things that if we move out smartly on them now, I think there's still time to have an impact on Chinese calculus.
0:38.4	And make an invasion of Taiwan seem too risky even for an increasingly risk-prone Xi Jinping.
0:44.6	But that window on our side is closing rapidly.
0:47.0	Hal Brands is a distinguished professor of global affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
0:58.6	He served as special assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Strategic Planning from 2015 to 2016,
1:04.8	and is the lead writer for the most recent National Defense Strategy Commission.
1:09.0	Hal, who has been on our show before, joins us today to talk about his new book, Danger Zone, the coming conflict with China.
1:16.6	We'll be right back with that discussion after a word from our sponsor.
1:20.4	I'm Michael Morrell, and this is Intelligence Matters.
1:23.8	I'm CBS News Business Analyst, Jill Slesinger.
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