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Today in Focus

The people betting on catastrophic world events

Today in Focus

The Guardian

Daily News, News

4.5778 Ratings

🗓️ 4 February 2026

⏱️ 25 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Prediction markets allow you to put money on everything from the US attacking Iran to Jesus returning. Saahil Desai explains their dizzying rise. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/infocus

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

This is The Guardian.

0:09.0

Today, betting on the end of the world.

0:23.6

We see new, special report. We are coming on the air right now with breaking news out of Venezuela.

0:26.6

Where several explosions have rocked the capital city there of Caracas.

0:31.6

In the early hours of January the 3rd, Donald Trump ordered a surprise attack on the Venezuelan capital

0:36.6

Caracas to kidnap the country's

0:39.2

leader, Nicholas Maduro. Neither the White House nor the Pentagon has issued any comment.

0:45.1

Millions of Venezuelan's lives were thrown into uncertainty. Politicians at home and abroad

0:50.5

scrambled to respond. And it's obviously a fast-moving situation.

0:55.4

And we need to establish all the facts.

0:57.9

It seemed like this was something no one had seen coming.

1:00.7

The public needs answers.

1:03.0

Across America, people are just saying, what the hell is going on?

1:08.9

Or almost no one.

1:13.6

Just hours before news broke of the military operation, an anonymous user on the prediction market

1:17.6

placed a significant bet that Maduro would be out of power by the end of the month.

1:22.6

Because it turns out that one person had literally predicted that this would happen. The facts are not known publicly yet. However, this particular trade really has all the hallmarks of an insider trade.

1:35.3

In the hours before the attack, someone, and we have no way of knowing who, put a series of bets that Trump would oust Maduro on a prediction market platform,

1:46.0

netting them nearly half a million dollars when it happened.

1:51.6

These platforms allow their users, not just a bet on whoever's going to win the Super Bowl,

1:56.8

but on catastrophic world events.

1:58.8

I just read about this last week.

...

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