This is Exchanges of Goldman Sachs.

We discussed developments currently shaping markets, industries, and the global economy.

I'm Jake Stewart, Global Head of Corporate Communications here at the firm.

Today we're joined by Jeff Curry, Global Head of Commodities Research for Goldman Sachs Research.

Jeff's one of our most frequent guests. for Goldman Sachs research.

Jeff's one of our most frequent guests.

Always a pleasure to have him on.

We're going to be talking about the 2021 outlook

for commodities bull run.

Jeff, welcome back.

Thanks for having me, Jake.

So in your outlook piece for next year, you said you expect a structural bull market to lead to

higher commodity prices and subsequently higher inflation. Big picture what's behind that thesis?

Well let's start with the idea that the vaccine is a tactical upside for

commodity prices as we see the normalization and activity next year.

The pandemic itself is a structural catalyst.

And what do I mean by that is COVID is a social crisis which has shifted policy towards

accommodating social need.

And that means policy will be directed

at lower income households that consume much more

of the stimulus and consume far more commodities because they outnumber the higher income households.

This stands in sharp contrast to the period after the financial crisis, which it was a financial crisis about the stability,

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