The other shoe
Marketplace All-in-One
Marketplace
4.5 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 11 May 2026
⏱️ 27 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Inflation and employment are the dual pillars of this economy’s health, which the Federal Reserve is mandated to evenly manage. Last week saw sunny news for the latter category, when the April jobs report was better than expected. Economists anticipate the opposite for the upcoming consumer price index, as the war in Iran inflates prices at home. In this episode, we brace for a dreary CPI. Plus: Adult education programs promise higher wages, retail investors pile on to the chip market, and climate change makes food less nutritious.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | The metaphor of the day is shoes. |
| 0:05.4 | As in, when is the other one going to drop? |
| 0:08.7 | From American public media, this is Marketplace. |
| 0:16.3 | In Denver, I'm Amy Scott in for Kai Rizdahl. It's Monday, May 11th. Good to have you with us. I hate to start the week off on a down note after that surprisingly buoyant jobs report we had just before the weekend. It showed strong job creation and low unemployment in April. |
| 0:40.4 | But the other economic shoe, and there's that metaphor, drops tomorrow with the latest |
| 0:45.8 | inflation numbers for April, the consumer price index. And forecasters are expecting it to show |
| 0:52.7 | a big increase in prices led, no surprise, by gas and energy. |
| 0:58.0 | Marketplaces Mitchell Hartman has the outlook. |
| 1:00.7 | I heard the word hot from a bunch of economists about tomorrow's inflation data and not in a good way. |
| 1:06.9 | Tomorrow's CPI report, it's going to be a hot one. |
| 1:10.0 | So I'm expecting the second straight, extremely hot increase. |
| 1:14.7 | It's simply unmitigated disaster to have rising energy and related energy commodities. |
| 1:20.4 | That's Arun Sundaram at CFRA Research, Joe Bursuelas at consulting firm RSM, and Jay Hatfield |
| 1:26.9 | at Infrastructure Capital Advisors. |
| 1:29.6 | Economists expect headline inflation in April to come in at 3.8% year over year. In February, before the Iran war started, it was 2.4%. |
| 1:40.3 | Jay Hatfield says, we've seen this before when inflation spiked during the 1970s OPEC oil embargo. |
| 1:48.0 | Difference now is that the Iran War is also affecting other key economic inputs. |
| 1:53.3 | It's not just an energy price shock, but the closure of the street is impacting a number of commodities exported of the Middle East, so like |
| 2:02.5 | aluminum steel and fertilizer. So far, we haven't seen core inflation rising sharply. That excludes |
| 2:10.1 | food and energy. But it's what Joe Bursuelas at RSM expects to see in coming months. |
| 2:15.8 | Second order effects whereby transportation costs junk, and then it begins to show up in food prices. |
| 2:23.4 | And then later on in the year, due to the disruption of refined products and fertilizers, |
... |
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