The One Trait That Predicts Trump Support (w. Matthew MacWilliams)
Bulwark Takes
The Bulwark
4.7 • 1.1K Ratings
🗓️ 30 August 2025
⏱️ 22 minutes
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Summary
Read Matthew MacWilliams’ 2016 piece, “The One Weird Trait That Predicts Whether You’re a Trump Supporter“
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Building a coffee business, serving the best Americano in town is up to you. But winning back time and growing your business, leave that to sum up. Take orders and payments anywhere with the new sum up terminal. Turn occasional customers into regulars with a free loyalty program. And with the sumup point of sale system, you'll always know when you're running low on your best selling blends. Visit sumup.com.combe to learn more. Hey guys, it's me, Sam Stein, managing editor at the bulwark. And I am pleased to be joined by Matthew McWilliams, who is a fellow at the German Marshall Fund. And you might be wondering, well, why are we having Matthew McWilliams on this podcast? Why are we? Who is this guy? Who is this guy? So this guy is an Oracle, a real life Oracle. Not of Delphi. Yeah, exactly. |
| 0:43.8 | In all seriousness, the reason we're talking with Matthew McWilliams today is because a couple |
| 0:49.7 | weeks ago, in our office slack, we were debating Donald Trump and why voters have flocked to him in the way they have. |
| 0:57.5 | And one of our fellow editors here, Hannah Yost, said, you know who we should talk to about this phenomenon? |
| 1:03.9 | Is that guy who wrote that thing in Politico back in 2016 about how there's one trait that can predict whether you're a Trump supporter. |
| 1:12.0 | And she pasted the URL and it was to a political magazine story. |
| 1:15.6 | And indeed it was from January 17th, 2016, so during the campaign. |
| 1:21.8 | And it's titled the one weird trait that predicts whether you're a Trump supporter. |
| 1:25.6 | And that trait is, Matthew, what is it? |
| 1:28.6 | It's authoritarianism. Dada. Oh, my. And here we are. And I can tell you when I wrote that thing? |
| 1:36.4 | Yeah, I used the word authoritarianism. It was like verboten. Now everyone uses it. But when I wrote it, |
| 1:43.2 | it was like, no, you can't say that. Can't use that. |
| 1:47.0 | All right. Before we get into the reaction to your piece from 2016, tell us what the study and findings |
| 1:53.1 | are based on. Well, the findings are based on a series of poll questions. And there are four poll questions, now they're |
| 2:02.5 | eight, but are used to determine if a person's an authoritarian or not. It's not deterministic. |
| 2:09.6 | It's probabilistic, which means, you know, if you score high in the authoritarian scale doesn't |
| 2:14.6 | mean you're authoritarian, but you might be. You're more likely to be |
| 2:17.8 | than... |
| 2:18.4 | Inclined to be. Yes, you're inclined to be. And what that means is that your political attitudes and |
| 2:25.8 | your political opinions will reflect an authoritarian outlook much more than they are not likely to. |
| 2:33.3 | I suppose you should define what an authoritarian outlook is. An authoritarian outlook much more than they are not likely to. I suppose you should define what an authoritarian outlook is. |
| 2:36.7 | Authoritarian outlook is pretty simple. It is for someone who wants authority, order, |
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