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Hello and welcome. You are listening to Patrick Boyle on Finance, a podcast exploring ideas from

quantitative finance, examining events occurring in markets right now and financial history

to see what lessons can be taken away, including interviews

with some of the most interesting people in the world of finance. To learn more about the podcast,

visit onfinance.org.

Office mortgage default rates are rising around the world, which could mean problems for the banks,

insurance companies and pension funds who lent money to real estate investors.

No one loves leverage more than real estate investors who aim to amplify returns as much as possible with borrowed money.

Commercial mortgages differ from residential mortgages in that they're generally interest-only

loans, meaning that the investors get to make small monthly payments but are then faced with

a balloon payment of the initial loan amount on the date the mortgage comes due.

This lump sum needs to either be repaid or refinanced when the mortgage expires.

With an interest-only mortgage, the borrower gets to keep the property consistently leveraged

and the risk to the lender does not get reduced over time

because the principle is never paid down until the mortgage expires.

Commercial real estate investors and in particular office real estate investors are struggling

with changes to how and where people work in the wake of the pandemic,

as workers have been reluctant to return to the office five days a week.

...