The Next PM
TALKING POLITICS
Catherine Carr
4.7 • 2.5K Ratings
🗓️ 23 May 2019
⏱️ 48 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
As Theresa May's premiership gets very close to the end, we talk about who and what might be coming next. Can her successor re-establish the authority she has lost? Can anyone govern in this parliament or do we need a general election? Is the age of long-serving prime ministers also coming to an end? Plus we discuss what lessons can be drawn from the recent election in Australia: what does it tell us about the politics of climate change? With Helen Thompson and Chris Brooke.
Talking Points:
Theresa May’s prime ministership is nearing its last week. She has no authority left.
- Is it about her and her mismanagement, or has something happened to the office?
- Will her successor have any more luck? (It seems unlikely)
- It doesn’t seem like there was any realistic scenario in which May could have peeled off significant numbers of Labour MP’s.
- But the fight over the people’s vote within Labour could have turned out differently. If the leadership had succumbed, Labour MP’s in Leave constituencies might have done something different.
October will be a month of high drama: both the Brexit deadline and the party conferences.
- Also the three options will look more like two: everyone has to take no deal seriously at that point.
- Could there be a general election in the autumn?
If Labour doesn’t want to define itself according to Brexit, is there a plausible case for the Lib Dems to become the opposition?
- A revival of the Lib Dems hurts the Conservatives much more than Labour.
- Both main parties have a clear interest in having both Remain and Leave voters in their party. The problem is it means that neither of them can deliver Brexit.
The long premierships of Margaret Thatcher, John Major, and Tony Blair are historical exceptions.
- A lot of what’s going on is the absence of a parliamentary majority: that’s the norm in British politics.
- But on the Conservative side, it’s also about the particular way they elect a leader.
- In parliamentary politics there’s a pressure towards a soft Brexit, but the Conservative leadership is in the hands of the members. We don’t know that much about them, but everyone seems to think that the membership is very Brexity. That sets up the instability.
- There are also substantive issues that have historically driven instability in UK politics: difficult questions about the UK’s relationship with the rest of the world, and difficult questions about the UK as a multi-national state.
Did Australia just have a Brexit moment? Or is this something more familiar?
- There are parallels to the Major/Kinnock election in 1992.
- But there’s also the risk that the takeaway will be that going big on climate change is not a great strategy.
Mentioned in this Episode:
Further Learning:
- The End of the Party?
- More on Corbyn and Labour’s strategy
- On climate change and the Australian election
- Socialism in this Country?
And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here:
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Hello my name is David Ronsman and this is Talking Politics. It's been another week in the life of Theresa May's Prime Minister ship but it is very nearly the last week. |
| 0:19.0 | And we're going to talk about what might be coming next. |
| 0:24.0 | Talking Politics is brought to you in partnership with the London Review of Books. |
| 0:29.0 | As politics speeds up, slow down with the subscription to the LRB where Brexit and Trump are only part of a picture that includes, well everything else. |
| 0:40.0 | Read relevant pieces and subscribe at a special rate at lrb.co.uk forward slash talking. |
| 0:53.0 | So I'm really excited that Chris Brook is back. I'm aware that quite a lot of people might have joined listening to this podcast in the long period since Chris was lost on which I think is about a year ago. |
| 1:05.0 | Not much has happened as barely anything to talk about since you were last year but we'll try and catch up. |
| 1:11.0 | Chris among many other things used to keep us on the straight and narrow about British politics and how it works, particularly electoral politics. |
| 1:19.0 | So it may be that some of the ways we've gone wrong in the last year because he hasn't been here. And Helen Thompson is here also. |
| 1:27.0 | Theresa May has produced the final version and I think we have to assume it is the final version of her Brexit plan which I think we also have to assume it's going nowhere. |
| 1:39.0 | It may not even come to a vote though she seems determined to put it to a vote. |
| 1:43.0 | And it really does feel like the last days of this Prime Minister ship it's almost impossible to imagine a scenario where she keeps going for more than a few weeks. |
| 1:53.0 | The authority has drained away. We've talked a lot about the sequencing of Brexit and whether she could kind of get people lined up in a way so that their choices were reduced and the unpalatable one pushed them towards her preferred option. |
| 2:07.0 | It's almost like she's engineered it so that the reverses happen. So each time she produces a version of her preferred option. |
| 2:14.0 | People seem to have more and more reason to share away from it because they think they have other options because she has no authority left. |
| 2:21.0 | So one of the questions and there are many about what we've learned from her Prime Minister ship. |
| 2:27.0 | Is it about her and her mismanagement of this or has something actually happened in this parliament to the officer Prime Minister to executive authority? |
| 2:36.0 | Because, and this is the question I'm really interested in, is her successor going to have any better prospect of corralling this parliament through the authority of the executive to do what he or she is probably going to be or what he or she wants? |
| 2:51.0 | I think the answer to that question ultimately is no. They're going to be stuck with largely the same difficulties that Theresa May has had. |
| 3:00.0 | I think some caveats need to be put on that though. The first is that this last stage, the point from the defeat of the third meaningful vote to where we are now, is quite difficult to understand what she thought she was trying to do. |
| 3:17.0 | I think all the other stages get into that point. There were reasons for what she did that were discernible. |
| 3:24.0 | There were also reasons why you might have thought that it wasn't such a sensible strategy to pursue, but at least it was kind of like reasoning counter-reason. |
... |
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