The National Security Risks We're Not Prepared For: Adapting In an Age of Actorless Threats with Rod Schoonover
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens
Nate Hagens
4.8 • 550 Ratings
🗓️ 18 June 2025
⏱️ 59 minutes
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Summary
National security concerns have been the invisible hand guiding governance throughout recorded history. In the 20th century, it was defined by a country versus country dynamic: whichever nation was the strongest and most strategic was also the safest. But today, our biggest national security threats don't come from opposing nations – they are "actorless threats" that emerge from the breakdown of the complex systems we all depend on – from the stability of our planetary systems to our intricately complex and fragile global supply chains. In this unprecedented landscape, what is required of us in order to keep our citizens safe?
In this episode, Nate is joined by Rod Schoonover, an expert at the intersection of Earth systems stress and national security, where they discuss the need for the evolution of national defense to address the systemic (and diffuse) threats of the 21st century. Rod emphasizes the need for a reformed security sector that addresses contemporary challenges, like global heating that leads to extreme climatic events, urging immediate action to mitigate risks and enhance stability. Importantly, they also delve into the need for political leadership to embrace complexity and local resilience when tackling these pressing issues.
How do we unite against 'actorless' threats, even when we don't have someone to blame for their damages? Where have leadership and governance already begun to adapt to address these existential concerns, and where are we seeing failures? Finally, how could incorporating more cooperative principles at every level of society transform our ability to bend – not break – under the weight of our human predicament?
(Conversation recorded on May 6th, 2025)
About Rod Schoonover:
Rod Schoonover is the CEO and Founder of the Ecological Futures Group, Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University, Senior Associate Fellow at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), and Senior Associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Rod served a decade in the U.S. intelligence community as the Director of Environment and Natural Resources at the National Intelligence Council in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and as Senior Scientist and Senior Analyst in the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research. Before joining the government as a AAAS Diplomacy Fellow in 2009, Rod was a tenured Professor in the Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry at Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo. Dr. Schoonover earned his PhD in theoretical chemical physics at the University of Michigan, where he studied complex systems.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | the doctrine of the 20th century was sort of like the game of risk, where you have the map |
| 0:05.1 | that doesn't change and all the pieces move on top of it. The question is, does it still match |
| 0:11.0 | the threat landscape of the 21st century that some people, including myself, call these an era of |
| 0:17.4 | actorless threats, threats without someone to point a drone at. |
| 0:21.4 | Things like climate change, pandemics, ecosystem destabilization, food price shocks. |
| 0:27.2 | You know, if a foreign invader were burning houses or intentionally sinking whole apartment |
| 0:34.1 | buildings under mud, we'd have no problem seeing it as a national security issue. |
| 0:38.6 | But because we don't have those actors, we have difficulty seeing it. And I think that's |
| 0:43.8 | evidence of a misalignment between doctrine and threat. |
| 0:52.8 | You're listening to the Great Simplification. |
| 0:56.0 | I'm Nate Higgins. |
| 0:57.2 | On this show, we describe how energy, the economy, the environment, and human behavior all fit together and what it might mean for our future. |
| 1:05.6 | By sharing insights from global thinkers, we hope to inform and inspire more humans to play emergent |
| 1:12.6 | roles in the coming great simplification. |
| 1:19.3 | Today I'm joined by Rod Schoonover, a leading expert in the interrelationship between |
| 1:24.7 | ecological and national security to explore how our understanding |
| 1:29.3 | of security risks is being reshaped in the 21st century, particularly under the strain of |
| 1:35.3 | increasingly breached planetary boundaries. Rod Skunover is the founder and CEO of the |
| 1:41.6 | Ecological Futures Group, which examines the national security and societal dimensions |
| 1:47.0 | of global ecological change. Rod previously served as director of environment and natural |
| 1:53.7 | resources at the National Intelligence Council, as well as senior analysts in the State |
| 1:58.8 | Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research. |
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