Today's animal spirits is brought to you by our friends at Y-charts. Michael, Minneapolis Federal Reserve president Neil Keshe,

a colleague in the show before. My colleague was talking about strong consumer balance sheets,

a topic we've been talking about in the show before. He basically said, are these stronger balance sheets

leading people to spend more or be more confident or just change their behavior? And he said,

if that's the case, the Fed might have to get more aggressive. So one of my favorite charts on Y-charts

is real retail sales. This is with inflation accounted for. So we're not nominal people here.

We're using real. And look at this thing. It's still way, way above trend from before,

even after counting for inflation. Even after inflation, it's up 16% since pre-pendemic levels.

So we're going to talk about this on the show a little bit today.

There's too much demand. There's too much demand. But is it possible for retail sales to fall

back to trend without... Oh, they're going to. Can we do that without really hurting the U.S.

economy? That's my question. No, no. We can't. You see the inventory build up at all the retailers,

which we're getting into. No, you can't do it. Can't do it. All right. If you want to check out

some of these economic charts from Y-charts, remember tell them animal spirits sent to you,

get 20% off your initial subscription. We've had a lot of people reach out to us. Say, hey,

we appreciate the subscription. We like to help out people who need research. Go to Y-charts,

tell them animal spirits sent to you. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets,

life, and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're

reading, writing, and watching. Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson work for Rithold 12th

Management. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben or any podcast guests are solely their

own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Rithold 12 Management. This podcast is for

informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions.

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